July 30, 2006

Luna for Belliard

Posted by Bobo Hilario | 4:52 pm | Cardinals | Comments: 2

Apparently, the Cardinals traded for Ronnie Belliard today.  They gave up Hector Luna, who they got from the Indians for nothing in the Rule V draft 3 years ago.  So long term the Cards got Ronnie Belliard for nothing.  Luna is only 26 and can already hit well for a middle infielder, but his fielding has not developed as fast as the Cards would have liked.  Belliard is 31, he hits about as well as Luna and fields considerable better.  Belliard, was considered a marginal major leaguer until the Indians gave him a chance three years ago and he earned an everyday job.  Now, he is at least an average major league second baseman.  For 2006, Belliard is clearly an improvement over the Luna/Miles platoon.  Belliard is making 4 million this year and is a free agent next year.  Hopefully, the Cards don’t plan on resigning him at that price when he is 32. 
I think Jocketty made a good deal, while not a blockbuster.  The Cardinals look playoff bound this year, and like any playoff team they should make all the moves to give themselves the best chance to win immediately.  Luna will be a decent bench hitter an spot starter for years to come, but players like that are usually readily available.

July 26, 2006

How the Cardinals can win it all

Posted by Bobo Hilario | 9:00 am | Cardinals | Comments: 3

Clearly, the Cardinals are not as good as the Cardinals of 2004 or 2005, teams which failed to win it all.  So how are they going to win it this year?  Here are my keys:

1. Make the playoffs.  Duh.  The truth is that any team that makes the palyoffs has a descent chance of winning.  The chance of any playoff caliber team beating any other playoff cailber team in a five or seven game series is good.  If wildcard teams, which are not the best teams in the regular season can win the championship three years in a row, anyone can do it.  The Cardinals should make the playoffs, but with 64 games left there are still three NL central teams within 10 games.  The magic number against the Reds is 60.
2. Mark Mulder.  The Cards have one rock solid starter in Chris Carpenter.  After that, there is no one they can count on to go out and shut down the other team.  Suppan so far this year has alternated two good starts with two bad starts.  Marquis has had several mediocre starts (all have earned him wins) along with two great starts and three horrible starts.  Anthony Reyes threw his one hit gem to secure a spot in the rotation, but has been hittable since.  The Cardinals need to go into the playoffs with a pitcher that has throw four or five quality starts in a row.  Mulder is the best chance they have.  If he can show that his problems were because of an injury, and come back strong and well rested, he can be a dominant number two starter in thr playoffs.
3. Chris Duncan and Hector Luna.  Barring a move by Walt Jocketty, the Cards two biggest question marks are still left field and second base.  Duncan and Luna, who both started last night are the best bats the Cards have in those spots and should see lots of time down the stretch and into the playoffs.  Neither is great with the glove, but Taguchi and Miles can come into games late when the Cards are up.
4. Jason Isringhausen.  Izzy does not have the dominant pitches he once had, those days are long gone.  Too frequantly he gets the ball up and starts to walk people and give up homers.  However when he is locating well, he can still be a great closer.  He will need to locate well in the playoffs for the Cards to have any chance, or he will have to be replaced.
5. Play in the National League.  We got his one wrapped up.  The Cards are the second best team in the NL by all accounts.  That makes them about eighth best in all of baseball.  The path is easier out of the NL, even without home field.

 As I said above, anything can happen, but just for fun I will lay out the Cards path.  The Cards will win the Central but lose home field to the Mets.  The Padres will hold on in the West, and the Brewers will edge out the tight Wildcard race.  Just like last year, the Cards will punish the Padres, especially if Peavy is struggling.  Carpenter and Mulder will dominate the first two games in St. Louis and the Card will finish off the sweep in San Diego (Whale’s Vagina) in the twelfth inning when Scott Rolen hits a 11th inning homer off of Trevor Hoffman.  The Brewers will make the Mets work for the series.  Ben Sheets will come back from injury and through a shutout in the first game.  The Braves will take advantage of the off days to use Pedro and Glavine to pitch three of the five games and will win in five when David Wright hits two homers including a walk off.  Unfortunately, while jumping into the pile at home plate Wright lands on Carlos Beltran’s foot.  Wright severely sprains his ankle and Beltran’s foot is badly bruised by Wright’s cleat. 

That leads to the Cards taking on the pond scum from Queens.  The Cards go into New York and split the first two games.  They come back to St. Louis and everyone is wearing red pond scum t shirts.  The Mets are so distraught they lose games three and four by a combined 21-4.  Pedro pitches game five and the Mets win 4-1.  In game six, Carpenter pitches seven scoreless innings and the Pujols hits a two runshot.  Wainwright gives up a solo homer to Carlos Delgado in the eighth.  In the ninth, the Cards are up 2-1 and Jose Reyes gets a bunt single with one out.  Izzy and Molina get a strike ‘em out throw ‘em out to end the game and series.  In the ALDS, let’s say the Red Sox beat the wild card White Sox and the Tigers beat the A’s (yes the A’s lose a playoff series.)  In the ALCS, the Tigers beat the Red Sox in seven games with no team ever scoring more than three runs.

The World Series is Cardinals/Tigers.  ESPN tells us that they played in 1968 (The year of the Bob Gibson) and Gibson’s 27 innings were not enough.  Also, we find out that La Russa and Leland are friends and Placido Polanco came up as a Cardinal.  In game one, Mulder pitches a gem and DH Chris Duncan comes up a triple shy of the cycle.  The Cardinals win 5-2.  In game two, Carpenter matches Mulder’s effort and Pujols does his thing going four for four with a homer two doubles and 5 RBIs for a 7-3 win.  Jeremy Bonderman shuts down the Cards in St. Louis and Pudge hits a three run double in the fifth off of an Anthony Reyes’s changeup, Tigers win 4-2.  Game four is delayed 1 hour by rain, both starting pitchers are messed up.  It becomes a battle of the bullpens and Braden Looper outpitches Todd Jones (Pujols helps) down the stretch and the Cards win 12-10 to go up 3-1.  Justin Verlander throws eight scoreless innings in game five and the Tigers win against Mulder.  Carpenter and Nate Robertson face each other in game six in Mo Town (Did you know Jerome Bettis is from Detroit?).  The Cards get an early run on an Jim Edmonds solo shot in the 2nd.  The Tigers get two runs in the sixth when Polanco is hit by a pitch, Eckstein over throws first base on a tough and puts runners on second and third and Magglio Ordonez bloops a single down the line.  In the eighth inning, Pujols leads off and flys out to the track.  When Rolen gets out and Edmonds walks but is stranded, the Tigers start thinking about game seven.  In the ninth John Rodriguez, pinch hitting for Taguchi, is struch out by Todd Jones before Molina lines a single the other way.  Luna pinch hits for Miles and walks.  Eckstein moves both runners over on a ground ball to 2nd.  Chris Duncan (DH again) is getting all fastballs in front of Pujols and he takes two big cuts but fouls them off.  Ahead 0-2, Jones throws a breaking ball in the dirt, that hits Duncan in the foot…  Pujols… Homer…5-2 Cardinals.  Bottom of the ninth, Izzy loads the bases but strikes out the side and the Cardinals win the Championship.

July 16, 2006

Notes from Cards/Dodgers

Posted by Bobo Hilario | 4:37 pm | Cardinals | Comments: 4

Some more thoughts as the Cards take on the Dodgers.

• Anthony Reyes is a gem.  He struck out the side in the first in convincing fashion.  He got ahead of all four batters with first pitch fastballs low in the strike zone.  He put each hitter away with either his nasty change up or his new sinker.
• Chris Duncan got the start in left field today, as he should most days.  It immediately paid off with a double against Brad Penny, one of the leagues toughest pitchers in the first half.  Duncan is a better hitter than Taguchi, or Spezio, and Luna should be spending most of his time in the infield.  Duncan and J-Rod have become interchangable as lefthanded power hitting left fielders.  Neither are great with the glove, and both love to hit fastballs.
• The Dogders got to Reyes in the second.  Olmedo Seanz went deep and Andre Ethier almost did the same thing on a good high fastball our of the zone.  The Dodgers already have seven hits, but four of those are soft infield hits that found the right spot.
• Albert Pujols, slugger, slick fielder, humanitarian, role model, family man, but NOT a scientist.  According to the broadcast today, Pujols was quoted as saying “It is hard to steal a base with an extra eight to ten pounds of sweat in your uniform.”  Just in case you are reading this Albert, when sweat leaves your body it does not magically become heavier, even if you do lose a gallon of sweat you don’t weigh more.
• Yadier Molina had a huge two out two run double.  Molina lined one into the right field gap.  Molina, just like in 2005, had a horrible April and May with the bat, but had a good June.  I predicted that Molina would have a break out year with the bat, something around (260/340/400) but his current numbers (220/270/320) make it clear that I was wrong.  He turned 24 three days ago, so he still should have significant improvement with the bat over the next few years.
• The game got out of hand, in a good way, down the stretch.  All of the Cardinals were hitting.  It was so much fun to watch my Natty Light tasted good.  Final Score 11-3.  That’s seven in a row.  If Jeff Weaver wins his debut tomorrow the Cards will cancel out the eight game losing streak from three weeks ago.

July 6, 2006

Sort of a Step in the Right Direction

Posted by Mike | 11:00 am | Pirates | Comments: 0

Kip Wells gives up five over six, brings ERA down three points to twelve point fourish in loss to Mets.

Have To Win Sometimes

Posted by Mike | 9:00 am | Cubs | Astros | Comments: 0

Cubs…win? Houston says, “We don’t stink just for Roger: we do it for Oswalt, too!” as complete game wasted.

Yeah, That Might Help

Posted by Mike | 8:00 am | Cardinals | Comments: 0

Jeff Weaver, recently DFA’ed, is a Cardinal: while not great, there’s a good chance he’s better than Suppan or Ponson.

Piling It On

Posted by Mike | 7:00 am | Cardinals | Comments: 0

Cardinals cuffed again, this time in Atlanta. Their four point five nine team ERA shows that their pitching quite mediocre.

July 5, 2006

NL Central All-Stars

Posted by Mike | 7:00 am | All things Central | Comments: 1

Twenty words each on the NL Central All-Stars:

Albert Pujols, 1B (STL) - “Starting at first base, having received three point eight bajillion votes, the most of all players, the Cardinals’ Al-berrrrrrt Puuuuu-jollllls!”
Scott Rolen, 3B (STL) - Thanks to David Wright, a reserve player this year despite returning to 2004 form after 2005 season shortened by injury.
Chris Carpenter, SP (STL) - Doing well this year with a two point eight-five ERA, but lack of wins disguising his effectiveness so far.
Jason Bay, OF (PIT) - Vicious beast of a player stuck in Pittsburgh for a few more years at least, Bay will start in left.
Freddy Sanchez, OF (PIT) - Only five home runs, but still has slugging percentage above .500 thanks to lots o’ doubles. Made team as reserve.
Carlos Lee, OF (MIL) - Carlos clobbers the ball consistently, but not as good as Jason Bay so he starts the game on the pine.
Derrick Turnbow, RP (MIL) - Twenty-three saves, but a four point seven one ERA.The former (plus the hair) landed him on this team.
Lance Berkman, 1B (HOU) - Berkman is whomping the ball with a .600 plus slugging, but someone named Albert Pujols keeps him as a reserve.
Bronson Arroyo, SP (CIN) - Mediocre AL pitcher becomes NL ace for Cincinnati, makes the All-Star team with ease. The National League is screwed.
Carlos Zambrano, SP (CHI) - A bright spot for the Cubs, I think Phil Garner should sub him in as a pinch hitter for kicks.

July 4, 2006

Out of Sight, Out of Mind

Posted by Mike | 7:50 pm | General | Comments: 0

You know Bud Selig and MLB have image problems when Jose “Surreal Life” Canseco’s comments on steroid policy have credibility.

July 3, 2006

Cards/Braves notes

Posted by Bobo Hilario | 9:39 pm | Cardinals | Comments: 0

Some random notes while I watch my Cardinals take on the Braves:

• This is not quite the NL powerhouse struggle ESPN had in mind when they scheduled this game.
• I am pleasantly surprised that Rick Sutcliffe is calling the game instead of Joe Morgan. But Sutcliffe just said that La Russa was “playing the numbers” when the Card unintentionally-intentionally walked Andruw Jones to load the bases with one out to face Brian McCann. Even though Andruw Jones has more RBIs, I don’t think the Sabermetric community would call La Russa’s move by the numbers. The good new is that McCann grounded into the ending inning double play and Sutcliffe started kissing Tony’s ass.
• Albert Pujols has full grown man muscles. He hit a single so hard Ryan Langerhans got confused and let it bounce right past him.
• Izzy was quoted as saying the reason the Cards are still in first is that everyone else is playing worse than they are. That is true and I am glad Izzy will admit it.
• Anthony Reyes obviously has a lot of movement on all of his pitches tonight, but he’s not locating well. If he keeps putting up goose eggs Sutcliffe will start calling him “effectively wild.” He has plunked two guys already, including Francouer in the head.
• Albert Pujols has full grown man muscles. He hit another dinger. The Cards are up 3-0 and now have about a 75% chance of winning according to this site.
• Marcus Giles, who was thought to have lost his homer mojo hit a solo shot. The Cards old $40 million friend Edgar Renteria went back to back with Giles to make it 3-2. The Cards win expectance is now 56%, which is less than the chance of rain.
• ESPN gets its wish. A rain delay is going to let them switch to Yankees/Indians. Too bad they couldn’t squeeze in eight more outs. After the Cards recent slide, I would be happy to take a five inning 3-2 rain aided victory.
• Georgia rain clouds magentically attract baseballs. Since it started raining everything the Braves hit is very hard and very far. Even Yadier Molina hit a ball to the track the other way. Reyes only got out of the third inning because of a 9-2-4 run scoring single and out.
• My boy Rolen is not feeling it at the plate tonight. So far he has nubbed a weak grounder toward first, hit a routine grounder to third, and popped out. Two of those came with RISP.
• Albert Pujols has full grown man muscles. He has hit the ball real hard four time today. Unfortunately, the third time was a few feet shy of a three run homer, and the fourth one was a one hop bullet to the third baseman for a double play.
• If Jim Edmonds wins a gold glove it shows how ridiculous the award is. He looked silly on another flyball over his head today. A couple years ago he got to all the deep balls and made the play. Now he is not getting there and not making the play, but he tries to make the play and gives up extra bases. The Cardinals have outfielder issues, and they will not solve any of them by picking up Edmonds option after the season.
• I hope Josh Kinney is having some jitters tonight. It looks like he has a decent off speed pitch and is attacking hitters well, but he has left pitches over the plate a couple times and doesn’t have a good enough fastball to get away with it.
• Bottom of the order is up for the Cards in the bottom of the ninth, luckily they are facing Jorge Sosa who can’t get anyone out this year. Molina had a good approach at the plate as he took the first four pitches and got ahead 3-1 before htting the ball hard the other way, but it hung up long enough to be caught. Miles did his best David Eckstein impression by falling behind and then fighting off borderline pitches. Too bad he doesn’t have quick enough hands to get anything on the ball when he chokes up and he chops one weakly to the 2nd baseman. Spezio also fell behind in the count, but he managed to hit a line drive… right to Marcus Giles to end the game.
• Card lose again, good news is that tomorrow Carpenter faces Lance Cormier, who is a soft throwing righty, and loser.