Workout/No Workout
By Mike J.
The Cubs are planning on having a personal workout for Magglio Ordonez after a face-to-face meeting, sez
Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune on January 30th.
The Cubs will not be attending a scheduled workout for Magglio Ordonez and no plans have been made to meet face-to-face, sez
Mike Kiley of the Chicago Sun-Times on January 31st.
Two seemingly credible sources: which one is lying? If Scott Boras is involved, maybe they're both telling the truth. Reason dictates that simply waiting for something to happen is the most prudent course of action, since Sammy Sosa hasn't even been officially traded yet.
Still, what about Aubrey Huff?
Kiley reports that "Hendry has not been in touch with Tampa Bay Devil Rays general manager Chuck LaMar about outfielder Aubrey Huff, but he probably will inquire." Based on the workout statements above, Kiley is as likely to be wrong about this as he is right: personally, I get the sense that he's been reading a lot of Cubs blogs lately. Considering that searching for "
Aubrey Huff Cubs" in Google News returned 2 links to all-baseball.com and 1 to The Hardball Times, its pretty darn likely.
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Are They Serious?
By Mike J.
While we sit tight and wait for the Sosa trade to finish, I can't help but be baffled by the reported amount of money the Tigers are offering Magglio Ordonez. ESPN's Rumor Central sez:
Jan. 31 - Tigers or Cubs? The Tigers are determined to make something happen. Owner Mike Ilitch wants his team beefed up for 2005 and has sided with his front office in thinking Magglio Ordonez is the best bet to help on an everyday basis, the Detroit News reports.
The Tigers made an offer last week and agent Scott Boras sent them a counterproposal, the Chicago Sun-Times reports. The Tigers' bid is believed to be for five years and ranges from $55 million to $70 million. Boras likely made a counteroffer of six or seven years.
The Cubs are interested in only a one- or two-year deal with Ordonez - and would require contractual safeguards concerning his surgically-repaired left knee. Chicago GM Jim Hendry is expected to be in California this week to watch a workout by Ordonez.
No other teams are known to be competing with the Tigers to give Ordonez five or six years at $11-12 million per year. The slugging right fielder hit .292 last year with nine homers and 37 RBI, but missed most of the season because of a knee injury that needed two operations.
What the Tigers are supposedly offering isn't a bad contract, if Maggs' knee hadn't imploded last year. I still would like to see Ordonez come to the North Side after signing a reasonable contract, but I can hardly expect a one-year offer by the Cubs to compete with a hefty Tigers contract.
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What Next?
By Mike R.
In case you have been living under a rock this weekend you have probably heard by now that Sammy Sosa is pretty close to joining the Baltimore Orioles for Jerry Hairston Jr. and a couple of minor leaguers. A lot of writers are coming down hard on this trade on the basis that the Cub's best outfielder is now a guy in Corey Patterson, who will struggle to keep his OBP even close to the league average. They feel that the Cubs threw away Sosa, who was a pretty good bet for another 35-40 home runs for a utility infielder and some prospects. I am of the belief that this cannot be the end of Jim Hendry's plan. In my mind, this deal does not get done unless Hendry has another trade lined up or at least thinks he has a better than average chance to get another free agent outfielder. But before I deal with the prospects for the second part of this deal I want to say a word about Jerry Hairston.
I think that Jerry Hairston is a fantastic pickup and this off-season was one of the few guys I was excited to hear being thrown around in Sammy Sosa rumors. In my mind Hairston can play right field and leadoff for the Cubs, giving them a huge boost in OBP and speed. He also seems to be a tough defender who goes all out on every play, though it will be interesting to see how he would adjust to a full season at a corner outfield position. What Hairston also adds is a right-handed platoon for Todd Walker. I'm not suggesting that these two guy should switch playing every day but looking at Walker's numbers against lefty pitchers, Hairston figures to be a great guy to step in when the Cubs face a lefty. I see no reason other than injury that Jerry Hairston cannot be an everyday player for the Cubs. Sure he is not as powerful as Sammy Sosa but I don't see the Cubs hurting this year in the power numbers anyway. The cubs desperately needed a guy that could play every day and understood the value of a walk now and then. Hairston is that player.
So what is next for Jim Hendry and the Cubs. The rumors are getting a little out of hand now that Sosa looks like he will be traded and so obviously it would be hard to deal with them all. I would personally love to see Aubrey Huff in a Cub uniform, especially if he could be shipped to Chicago along with the Tampa Bay closer Danys Baez. Huff is a great player who would look awfully good in left field for the Cubs. My only concern with Huff is that he may come at a much higher price than originally thought. It was rumored that the Cubs might be able to pry Huff away for the prospects from Baltimore but I have to think that it is going to take one of the Cubs's elite or at least very good pitching prospects to convince Tampa Bay to hand over Huff. I personally don't think Jeromy Burnitz would be quite the disaster everyone makes him out to be. Yes Burnitz will strike out quite a bit but I think he will still get on base, hit his homers and generally contribute nearly what Sosa would have contributed. I'm not saying that Burnitz is my favorite by any stretch but I don't think his signing would be the end of the world, especially now that we have added what looks to be a solid OBP at the other outfield spot.
All in all, I do not think we can judge this trade until we see that it allows Jim Hendry to do. If this is the end of the plan then I would probably have to say that this was a bad trade but I don't think it is the end. I think this move will allow Hendry to trade or sign another outfielder and potentially a closer as rumors are heating up that Hendry is making moves for Octavio Dotel, Baez or even Jorge Julio. Some of those guys might not be the greatest closers but they look a lot better to me than Ryan Dempster. We will have to wait and see if these prospects are moved for someone else or if this gives the Cubs the financial room to go out and sign Magglio Ordonez who is supposedly working out for the Cubs next week. Until I see the final product I am going to hold off my judgment on this trade.
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70% Chance Of $8 Million Falling From The Sky
By Mike J.
WGN Radio and ESPN are reporting a
Sammy Sosa trade to the Baltimore Orioles is all but done. Only a physical and a waiving of the no-trade clause should be necessary.
What do the Cubs get in return? Well, they get to pay a lot of Sosa's salary (a "substantial" portion), but they will get Jerry Hairston, Jr. and two prospects. Initially I like this deal because they didn't get Jorge Julio: closers are overvalued and I'd rather have a solid leadoff hitter in Hairston. Also, there's no way the deal can come back to bite the Cubs directly, because there's no way the Orioles are winning the wild card or winning the AL East.
Nothing has happened yet except that I look pretty silly for naysaying the possibility of a deal just yesterday, but from what's been reported it looks pretty darn likely.
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Top Cub Prospects
By Mike J.
Baseball America has their
top ten list of Cubs prospects up on their website now, but here they are for your convenience-
1. Brian Dopirak, 1b
2. Felix Pie, of
3. Ryan Harvey, of
4. Angel Guzman, rhp
5. Billy Petrick, rhp
6. Renyel Pinto, lhp
7. Sean Marshall, lhp
8. John Leicester, rhp
9. Grant Johnson, rhp
10. Jason Dubois, of/1b
There's also a chat going on with
Jim Callis, who's answering all questions Cubs prospect related. More on the picks and the remaining spots on the Cubs' roster later today.
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Mags Might Be A Tiger Soon
By Mike J.
Magglio Ordonez has at least exchanged figures with the Tigers, who apparently have
offered him a contract. He's in the process of pounding out the numbers right now, but that's all the news that's out there.
A good friend of mine pointed this out to me as well (thanks Blake):
"The Orioles are having internal discussions about whether to pursue a Sammy Sosa trade, the Washington Post reports.
If the money can be worked out, the Orioles could trade Jorge Julio and Jay Gibbons to the Cubs for Sosa and Kyle Farnsworth. It's the money that's the big problem, though. It's still pretty likely that Sosa will spend one final season with the Cubs."
These Sosa rumors just won't die. Money is going to remain a problem - he's simply getting paid too much at this point - and unless $8 million falls from the sky Sosa will likely be a Cub come Opening Day.
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2005 Promos
By Mike J.
Cubs.com posted a list of the promotions during the 2005 season, which is helpful if you want to plan your ticket purchasing around it, I suppose. You can find it
here.
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Jumping On The Bandwagon
By Mike J.
Even though this is a baseball blog, its impossible to ignore the tremendous success the Chicago Bulls since going 0-9 to start the season. Amazingly they're above .500 and it seems like the entire city of Chicago is eagerly jumping back onto the Bulls bandwagon. Being a fan of all the professional sports teams in Chicago since I was a young'un, its certainly nice to have something to cheer for during the winter months besides hot stove rumors, and I find that I'm letting myself believe the Bulls can make the playoffs. They're a far cry from the Jordan era, but just being above .500 is enough to make me happy.
Anyway, the whole point of this is that at the bottom of the sidebar I've added a new section of links for the other teams in Chicago. It only contains a few at the moment, but I highly recommend
Bulls Blog- its good readin'.
Now back to the Cubs- there's an article on the MLB site about
platooning Todd Hollandsworth and Jason Dubois in left field. There's also a tidbit at the bottom from Corey Patterson:
"He batted third throughout the minor leagues, so Patterson was never asked to bunt or use his speed the way a leadoff hitter would. He's had to learn in the big leagues.
"'The more you're in a certain position, the more you get familiar with it,' Patterson said. 'It'll take some time. I think I'm a pretty quick learner and I'll adjust pretty well.'"
We all hope so.
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The Ability to Learn
By Mike J.
It's no secret that Corey Patterson was much maligned for his inability to bunt during the beginning of the 2004 season. In fact, a quick Google search on the subject revealed some harsh words for the 25-year-old from several bloggers:
"I don't know if anyone will ever be able to make him understand what could be possible if he would only work to acquire the ability to bunt, but if someone does get it through his thick skull, they'll be getting a big thank you from me." - Derek Smart,
The Big Red C, 5/15/04
"My god, Corey, you're great. Got a bunt hit in the second inning. Gosh, that's what -- one or two this year?" Al Yellon,
And Another Thing!, 6/9/04
And to show I'm not trying to pick on anyone...
"I don't think anyone prefers playing small ball over hitting dingers, but everyone prefers wins over losses. Right now it seems like the Cubs' artillery is one piece short, and if the Cubs can add it to their arsenal, (note to Corey Patterson:
learn to bunt) they've got a great chance to have even more winning streaks like 4-gamer that they've got going now." - Me,
Old Style Cubs, 5/17/04
Why do I bring this up? Because this week's (Jan. 19th)
Stat of the Week by John Dewan lists the players with the most bunts for hits in 2004, and guess who's 3rd? You bet.
- Alex Sanchez, Detroit 26 for 51, .510
- Juan Pierre, Florida 19 for 42 .452
- Corey Paterson, Chi Cubs 16 for 25, .640
- Royce Clayton, Colorado 14 for 24, .583
- Rafael Furcal, Atlanta 14 for 26, .538
Patterson went from being harshly criticized for his inability to bunt to laying down just 3 less than the "
Best Bunter" in baseball, Juan Pierre. How's that for a turnaround?
Being able to bunt is fine and dandy, but Patterson's biggest obstacle to becoming an all-star player is his command of the strike zone. In 2004, Corey managed to strike out 168 times in 157 games while only walking 45 times, which is good for a horrific .27 BB/SO ratio. Exactly how bad is that? Among mortals, Todd Helton led the NL with a 1.76 BB/SO ratio, and since we're talking about him, Pierre posted a 1.26 ratio, good for 6th in the league. Patterson is down at 77th.
What's so encouraging about Patterson's bunting turnaround is his ability to learn quickly. At 25 years old, he's still young and open-minded enough to have his talent shaped into something special. If he worked on his discipline at all in the offseason, we may see a new Corey Patterson in Spring Training, one who knows that a chin-high fastball isn't in the strike zone.
Harsh words, but you can quote me on it.
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Detroit Is Shopping Magglio
By Mike J.
ESPN reports that the Detroit Tigers have had
preliminary talks with Magglio Ordonez and Scott Boras. While nothing has been decided, apparently they've been talking with one another for a while now about Ordonez's knee:
"We've actually had a number of calls prior to this meeting," Boras said after returning home to California. "Their doctors have talked with Magglio's doctors. They're certainly comfortable he'll be ready to go by spring training."
After the Cubs convention it appears pretty likely that Sosa will be back for 2005, which means Magglio will likely not move to the North Side. Hendry appears set on giving Jason Dubois a chance to prove himself in left field, and while Magglio is rumored to be offering a hometown discount to the Cubs, its become increasingly doubtful that said discount is big enough for Hendry's budget.
That being said, is Detroit a good landing spot for Maggs? The team has certainly come a long way since their horrific 2003 season, but they're still clawing their way back to contention in the generally lousy AL Central, which means they have a ways to go. If Ordonez is as healthy as he claims, he could be a great addition to the Tigers and perhaps push them into the thick of things come September.
In other news, speculating on the Tigers' chances in 2005 means there's a maddening lack of developments to report.
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News and Quotes
By Mike J.
Little bits of news and rumors are floating around after the Cub Convention, but nothing of astounding importance. The Cubs are indeed
talking with Robb Nen, but its not the sort of deal that will have an immediate impact on the club. Mark Prior and Ryan Dempster have some interesting quotes, but besides that not a lot has come out of the weekend that's all that newsworthy.
...Prior on Moises Alou and Matt Clement- "It's always tough to replace a guy that throws 200 innings and a guy that hits 40 home runs. Moises was a great clubhouse leader. When he talked, a lot of people listened.
"When you look at the numbers, you don't know if you ... can replace them. I know we've got the talent to do it, but whether the numbers at the end of the year match ... what we lost, only time can tell. Those two guys were very important to us."
...On whether Sammy returns for 2005- "I'm going into my fourth year, and we only have about a half-dozen guys that have been here all four years. I wouldn't be worried too much about what's going to happen. Time has moved on, and whether time is going to heal the wounds, we'll see. Nobody really knows what might happen.
...Dempster in defense of LaTroy Hawkins- "He had a little bit of failure, but it was his first year in the National League, and a lot of times it was magnified. There were games it shouldn't have been a save situation, but we didn't bury people."
"You read these things about Eric Gagne. And I read quotes by Mike Marshall and Goose Gossage about how it's easier to get saves. My point is that if it's easier to get saves, why isn't everyone else saving 84 games in a row? It's not an easy thing."
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He's Worth The $18 Million
By Mike J.
Roger Clemens is going to be back for at least one more year. The Astros are dishing out $18 million for his services in 2005, the most anyone has ever paid for a one-year contract.
Like Derek Smart said at the Cub Reporter, its hard to call this move a good deal: rather, its a deal that the Astros simply had to make. If one of the greatest pitchers of the last 20 years wants to pitch for your team and only your team and has proven that he's impervious to aging, you sign him. No question about it. I doubt Clemens expected to get all $22 million, but considering the $6 million (after bonuses) he made last season, $18 million is a damn fair price for the wins he'll provide and the seats he'll fill.
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What To Do With the Farns?
By Mike R.
As my partner pointed out on Tuesday the Cubs have resigned Kyle Farnsworth to a one year deal worth $1.975 million to avoid arbitration. This signing comes in the midst of numerous trade rumors involving Farnsworth to pretty much any team that will take him. So, does this deal mean the Cubs are fine with the Farns for one more year or, is this just the first move in a potential trade?
Not many players on the Cub roster are as hard to pin down as Kyle Farnsworth. Farnsworth is obviously an extremely gifted pitcher, capable of hitting triple digits on the radar gun, and it seems now capable of mixing in a nasty slider. The problem with the Farns has always been his head and it is that problem which has lead to years of frustration and inconsistency. Farnsworth seems to have the tools to be an elite closer but has shied away from every chance he has been given.
The main reason the Cubs have held onto to Farnsworth so long is the belief that if he is moved, he will catch fire with another team and become the elite closer everyone thought he could be. This has always seemed to me to be a silly reason for keeping a player. Sure no one wants to give away a talented player who has the potential to be great but at some point the need to move that player is going to outweigh the need to keep him from other teams. If the cubs don't feel like Farnsworth can add anything to this team than it would be wasteful to keep him around on the off chance he becomes the next Billy Wagner. I think that if the Cubs worry that the Farns can become an elite closer, how about they give him one last chance to see if he can do it? I think it is time for Jim Hendry to approach Farnsworth and tell him that he is the man in the ninth inning for this team but that this is his last shot. What do the Cubs have to lose by trying this way? We know Farnsworth has the tools to be a much better closer than Ryan Dempster or any of the other names that are being tossed out. Maybe this new slider of his is exactly what Farnsworth needs to get over that hump.
The way I see it there are two possible outcomes from letting Farnsworth try and close this season. He could do great in the role and finally become the closer everyone thought he could at which point the Cubs have solved their closer problem. The other possibility is that Farnsworth fails and the Cubs are back at square one (which is basically where they are now with Ryan Dempster). In this case the Cubs still haven't lost because Farnsworth can still be moved. The beautiful thing about a guy like Farnsworth is that other teams see only the three digits on the radar gun and drool. Plenty of teams would jump at the chance to be the team that finally figures out Farnsworth and makes him good. Sure his trade value might drop a bit, but you're telling me that a team with a bad bullpen wouldn't jump at the chance to add a guy like Farnsworth at the deadline. Farnsworth is the kind of player who tends to have the same trade value regardless of the numbers because of his raw tools. Because of this the Cubs would probably have little trouble moving him even if he failed in the closer role. The way I see it, it is time to give Farnsworth his last chance. If he succeeds the Cubs have found their closer and if he fails the Cubs can finally move him and still get something in return.
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SportsNation
By Mike J.
Alan Schwarz is quickly becoming one of my favorite baseball writers. In addition to the scouts vs. stats roundtable and the "patience at the plate" article that really got me thinking about what can actually be called patience, he's part of the new SportsNation Tournament of Champions poll to determine the best
World Series winner of the last 16 years. While I originally was puzzled as to why he didn't conclude that
OBP reflected the amount of patience a hitter displays, he wrote back after I sent him an email about it agreeing with me and giving the following reason for structuring the column as he did:
I agree with you -- and in fact, you corroborated a lot of what I try to do with these types of columns. The statistics are not supposed to be answers to questions, but more starting points, or catalysts, to other conversations. When you're dealing with something as murky as "patience" -- something I obviously couldn't even define, so that's why I structured the column as I did -- one needs a little humility and open-mindedness to roam around and see what he runs into.
I'm glad you seem to have enjoyed that a little bit. Have a great rest of
the offseason.
He's a tricky one. I've got to admit, I would have never even considered OBP connected to patience if it weren't for the stats - which proved nothing by themselves - that he used in the article.
Anyway, the poll at SportsNation pits the championship teams against another round by round, but you could probably determine the best by a simple poll: honestly, is there any doubt that the 1998 Yankees were the best team of the 16?
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News!
By Mike J.
In a shocking development, there's news to report regarding the Chicago Cubs. There's been a smattering of signings by the Cubs, who've agreed to contracts with
Corey Patterson, Michael Barrett, and The Farns.
Ironically, I'm not all concerned with this news- like the cruel-hearted person that I am, I prefer to laugh maniacally at the misfortune of other teams in the division.
Albert Pujols' heel is acting up again (Albert, don't push yourself. Take a season off and get better: we just want you to be healthy), and Roger Clemens is asking for
$22 million from the Astros! They did offer $13.5 mil to him already, but apparently he's not going to give another hometown discount.
That's a ton of money, but Clemens just might be worth it. However, I'm going to keep hoping that the Astros think otherwise.
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More Non-moves Part 2
By Mike J.
The Cardinals
"missed out" on Roberto Alomar as he signed with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays today. I'm sure Walt Jocketty is just kicking himself right now.
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More Non-moves
By Mike J.
Alfonso Soriano will
remain a Texas Ranger for one more year, signing for $7.5 million. Seems like an awful lot for a guy with practically no plate discipline and an impatient .324 OBP last year, so maybe Houston made a good move by not offering Soriano as much as the Rangers did.
That's about it for developments- even Cubs For Breakfast doesn't have any news today.
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Sosa Not Gonna Be A National Any Time Soon
By Mike J.
I've been trying to ignore most of the Sosa rumors lately, but this one is so ridiculous I couldn't pass it up. The Nationals have
renewed interest in Sosa in exchange for Termel Sledge and another player, but only if the Cubs pay a portion of Sosa's salary.
How much? All of it.
With only about $6 million left of a $50 million budget, Nationals GM Jim Bowden will only make a deal for Sosa if the Cubs pay all $17 million of his contract. Something tells me this deal ain't gonna happen.
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What Exactly IS Patience?
By Mike J.
Alan Schwarz, senior writer over at
Baseball America is enjoying quite a bit of success at espn.com lately. Not only was his
roundtable discussion with scouts and statheads featured today (which, if you haven't read already I suggest you do), he had another article on the title of
most patient hitter in baseball.
When it comes to being most patient, Schwarz points out that most everyone would assume that Barry Bonds, the man who walked 232 times in 2004, is the obvious choice. He then considers some other factors, like pitches per plate appearance, pitches of percentage taken, and percentage of strikes called and suddenly the results aren't so crystal clear. I'm vastly simplifying the argument, but it comes down to this:
"So let's leave it at this: Bonds is the Most Patient Hitter when it comes to balls, Kendall when it comes to strikes. Given that Bonds would probably be much more selective on strikes if he saw more of them, he gets our nod as the Most Patient Hitter overall."
So...the conclusion remains the same as when the article began, with the caveat that Kendall is more patient with strikes. This isn't really the point, though, because Bonds is so good he's more aberration than typical, and after Bonds its hard to say who's more patient.
But does it really matter? Patience might be hard to define because the stats Schwarz uses aren't all that reliable: who's #2 in percentage of pitches taken and percentage of strikes called? That's right, its Todd Zeile. If you can be considered one of the more patient hitters in the game by virtue of these stats and your name is Todd Zeile, maybe the approach itself is wrong.
Before I go any further, I want to highlight the closing sentences of Schwarz's article:
"The more you talk with baseball people, the more you get the idea that patience is, indeed, really as much about swinging as taking. It's about swinging only at the most purposeful times, whenever those may arrive."
After exploring what patience is and examining many different stats, Schwarz concludes that it's all about swinging at the most purposeful times. In other words, swinging or not swinging in a manner that's most likely to get you
on base.
There are too many quirks to the stats he looks at to draw any sort of strong conclusion based on them- if swinging at the most opportune time makes you a patient hitter, shouldn't Vlad Guerrero be considered patient as well? Why not swing at balls outside of the strike zone if you can hit them? The same Adam Dunn that ass 5th in pitches per plate appearance led the majors in strikeouts. Todd Zeile - Todd Zeile! - is behind only Bonds in percentage of pitches taken.
Based on Schwarz's conclusion, why can't you simply call the batters with the highest OBP's the most patient? Clearly they're swinging at only the most opportune times because they're beating the pitcher and not getting out more often. Patience, plate discipline, whatever you want to call it, is certainly important in a hitter's approach at the plate. Ultimately, however, it has very little to do with how many pitches a hitter sees over a season: its how many pitches result in the hitter getting on base.
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Chicago Alderman Do Some Panderin'
By Mike J.
While I was leafing through the RedEye - the Chicago Tribune's "hip" tabloid-size newspaper - I read that a couple of Chicago alderman want to
ban steroids all on their own. Well, to be more specific they won't actually ban steroids, but if the pro teams don't comply, the city will revoke their liquor, occupancy and public place of amusement licenses, which would put them in a bit of a pinch.
There is no doubt in my mind that these alderman are pandering to the public with this gesture. The amount of tax revenue lost from revoking these licenses would be massive and cripple many publicly funded programs. With that in mind, I don't think it has a chance at becoming a law unless it merely reinforces the forthcoming steroid policy from MLB.
Still, I would love to see the Chicago teams comply with such a policy without hesitation. At least that way we'll know Stephen Randolph won't be on the juice in 2005.
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The Case for Ordonez
By Mike R.
Now that the Cubs have lost out on Carlos Beltran it is time to seriously consider the Cubs' options to finish the outfield. Last month I made the case for J.D. Drew who I thought would be a great choice to play left field but unfortunately that did not pan out as he was quickly snatched up by the Dodgers. Don't get me wrong, I wanted Carlos Beltran and I thought he was the top choice. However, I wasn't ready to throw that kind of money and years at a player like Beltran and it seems that Jim Hendry felt the same way. With not too many option left on the market I think it is time for the Cubs to make a serious push for Magglio Ordonez. I am going to make a claim that might border on blasphemy but I think will pan out. Next year, Magglio Ordonez could very well out hit Carlos Beltran in most of the important categories. There I said it.
I believe that if Magglio Ordonez is healthy, and I will grant that is a big if, he could easily outperform Beltran in everything but stealing bases and defense. For the sake of my argument I am going to assume Ordonez will be relatively healthy next year and will show no ill effects in production or playing time. I understand that there is a high risk of Ordonez struggling in both of those categories but that is the beauty of an incentive laden contract. In his eight years in the major leagues Ordonez has hit above .300 6 times and has posted an OBP above .350 5 times (with a sixth year of .349). Ordonez is a career .307/.364/.525 hitter. In Beltran's seven year career he has hit above .300 only twice and has posted an OBP over .350 three times. Beltran is a career .284/,353/.490. These numbers tell me that Ordonez is more likely to hit for better contact, and take more walks than Beltran. Granted Beltran might be entering his prime but he still seems like a slightly worse hitter in terms of contact and drawing walks. Ordonez has been more consistent in homeruns, having 4 season of over 3o homeruns while Beltran has been the more consistent RBI guy, knocking in more than 100 runs in 5 of his 7 seasons, most of which were for bad Kansas City teams.
Where Beltran has the obvious advantage is stolen bases and defense. Ordonez was not a base stealing threat before his injury and figures to probably lose a step on the base paths this season. Beltran's base stealing prowess is well known as he managed to swipe 34 bases in the NL last season without being caught. Defensively Carlos Beltran is one of the premier center fielders in the game while Ordonez is an average right fielder. They do play different positions but obviously, Beltran adds a great deal more defensively than Ordonez.
So the question is, can Ordonez out perform Beltran? I believe that Ordonez can probably hit for better average and draw more walks than Beltran next year which is exactly what the Cubs need. Ordonez, if healthy, will probably hit his usual 30 homeruns and knock in his usual 100 RBIs making his offensive stats probably very similar to Beltran's. Beltran is obviously a better base runner and outfielder but are those two things worth that much more than Ordonez. If you figure that Ordonez could probably be signed for around 8 million with incentives you have to ask if Beltran is really worth $11 million more than Ordonez, especially considering that their hitting numbers have a good chance of being a wash? Granted, I would have loved Carlos Beltran but it sure looks like Magglio Ordonez can provide exactly what the Cubs need for a lot less money. If the Cubs can test him out enough and are willing to take the risk that he is healthy, Ordonez could be another steal to go along with the fantastic deals given to Nomar and Todd Walker. This doesn't even take into account that fact that Magglio seems to be foaming at the mouth to get the chance to play for the Cubs. All things considered, it seems like Magglio would be the perfect choice to fill the left field spot.
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Small Deal
By Mike J.
Cubs
acquire a lefty from the Diamondbacks today in the form of Stephen Randolph for a player to be named later. Randolph limped through 6 starts for Arizona in 2004, compiling a 0-3 record and a 7.73 ERA.
The
scouting report at ESPN says he's got decent stuff but some problems with mechanics. Sounds like a project to me- maybe we'll see him in the bullpen before the end of 2005.
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Oh Those Crazy Mets
By Mike R.
I'm not going to lie. I wanted Carlos Beltran in a Cub uniform and I was one of those people who thought him not signing with the Astros was a sign that he wanted to play for the Cubs. Alas, all hope of Carlos Beltran playing for the Cub disappeared this morning as it looks like the Mets have locked him up for a long time. Truthfully, the Mets can have Beltran if they are willing to pay the GDP of a small country for him and give him a no-trade clause. Will Carlos Beltran be worth 17 million for the next couple years? Probably. Will Carlos Beltran be worth 17 million and a no-trade clause in 6 years? Probably not. I for one will be saddened by the loss of Beltran but not angry. I think the Cubs did the right thing in not going too high in price or too long in years. If the Cubs offered a deal of around $75 million for 5 years as was rumored then I am content knowing the Cubs made a smart offer even if they lost Beltran. Seeing how the crazy contract of Sammy Sosa is handcuffing the team now makes me glad that the Cubs did not add another such deal.
While on the subject of fiscal sanity or lack thereof, I wanted to comment on how Jim Hendry has so far done a terrific job making and offering deals in what is a rather ridiculous market this offseason. Many Cubs fans have attacked Jim Hendry for his perceived lack of effort this offseason but in my mind Hendry has quietly made this team better and has done it without overspending. Hendry may not have added anyone new but he has locked up Nomar and Todd Walker for the whole season in what many experts call two of the best deals of the offseason. Cub fans forget that Nomar only played half the season and with a full year of Nomar and Walker the Cubs are clearly better. In addition Hendry avoided overpaying some of the mediocre closers on the market such as Troy Percival and Armando Benitez. The Cubs might still have a hole at closer but not if they are going to fill it with someone that is uninspiring at least they won't be paying too much for that player. Hendry has correctly realized that there are not any Eric Gagnes or Brad Lidges on the market so why overpay for middle of the road relief. So while Hendry has failed to sign a big name free agent he has also avoided making any bad deals. I think this has already been a successful offseason and the Cubs still have plenty of deals that can be made which will likely be more reasonable than Beltran. Can anyone say Ow ee ow Magglio?
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The Kid In Me
By Mike J.
My thoughts are all over the place tonight after hearing that Carlos Beltran did not sign with the Houston Astros. I've been trying to decide what's the best place to start, and since all seem equally important at 1:00 am, I'll start at the beginning:
Internet on a cell phone is one of the greatest conveniences ever invented.
After spending a night in Wrigleyville watching the Bulls beat the Celtics, I was riding the Red Line back to Evanston and refreshing the score of the Jets/Chargers game. I didn't have anything invested in the game, but it is the playoffs and as I've been made well aware in the last month or so, not a lot happens in the baseball offseason. Even though I've been conditioned not to expect any real news concerning the top free agent in the Hot Stove league, every so often I would comb the news wire to see if Beltran had signed with Houston or not. About 11:15 I checked once more out of boredom, and when the abbreviated headline revealed that he had not, my eyes almost popped out of my head. "Everyone had been so sure," I thought, but the next best scenario had just occurred: the Astros offseason had been crippled.
While I do strive for objectivity on this blog, I can't help it if the unabashed homer in me breaks through, almost always in the form of a fist pump. This was one of these times, even though the only news was a non-deal. Regardless, with the other Mike here at OSC looking over my shoulder as I read the headline, a wave of giddiness rushed over us. Before we knew what was happening, we were considering the following situations as if they were already guaranteed-
- Carlos Beltran, dearly wanting to play at Wrigley Field, would sign with the Cubs for a reasonable 5 years.
- Batting 3rd between Nomar and Aramis Ramirez, the Friendly Confines would inflate his numbers to glorious highs.
- In a bold move, Dusty Baker would put Corey Patterson in left-center, Beltran in right-center, and whoever else right behind second base in shallow center, allowing the two speedy Gold Glove candidates to roam and easily chase down whatever went over the infielders' heads.
Other variations on this part of the fantasy involved a complicated manuever that begins with Corey and Carlos running at a full sprint toward the path of a would be home run only to have Carlos take a knee to boost Corey 15 feet in the air, snagging the screamer right at the apex of the boosted leap.
You get the idea. We also speculated on why Beltran didn't sign with the Astros: all joking aside, I really do think that their potentially precarious situation in 2 years, when Roger Clemens, Craig Biggio, and Jeff Bagwell will be gone, had something to do with it. Having already lost Jeff Kent this offseason, things weren't looking up for the Astros' chances.
While we did realize the unlikelihood of Beltran signing with the Cubs, we were both happy with the prospect of him signing with the Mets, who have the next best deal on the table. ESPN2's Bottom Line said that the Houston Chronicle was reporting that this was indeed Beltran's destination, but then again they were confident the Astros would sign him only hours before.
See? There's the homer coming out in me again. I would be very, very surprised if the Cubs landed Beltran because the money and the duration of the contract that he wants doesn't match up with what the Cubs are offering. I would also be very disappointed to see the Cubs bow to such an demand from Scott Boras, because 7 years is simply too long. Overpaying for 5 years is acceptable: overpaying for longer is not.
I'm a fan of baseball for many reasons and the ability to track just about everything that happens in the game with statistics is a biggie. Rationally considering all the reasons that are behind any move a GM or a manager makes provides the seed for many great arguments, but I was a cheering, fist pumping, irrational little kid before I started crunching numbers, and getting to act like one is still the best part of following baseball.
We all might know by tomorrow that the Mets have signed another elite free agent, but until I see that abbreviated headline on my cell phone, I'll be hard pressed to keep myself from imagining Nomar and Beltran trotting around the bases as Ramirez follows them home.
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Is That Your Final Offer?
By Mike J.
According to the
Houston Chronicle, the Astros "final offer" to Carlos Beltran is $105 million for 7 years, considerably more than the $80 million 5-year deal the Cubs have reportedly offered.
The Astros' GM Tim Purpura said that this offer is their "final offer" to Beltran, even though the owner Drayton McLane has been handling the negotiations. Not only is the owner taking charge slightly confusing, McLane's responses to Purpura's comment are even moreso. First he backs Purpura's statement,
"There's no more offers coming from the Houston Astros," McLane said. "The offer we have out there, that's the only one we're going to give. There are no more.
"We've made it clear that we'll make no more offers. We've had the offer out there. We're not going to change the offer. If that fits them, terrific. If not, then we have to move on."
In other words, a final offer. Later in the article, McLane expresses shock at Purpura's statement and says,
"We just said we need a decision on the offer that we had. "I'm not sure what (Purpura) meant by that.
"I said to Scott today that we need a decision of where we stand; if Tim interpreted that as our final offer. In our discussions today we said we certainly need to know where Houston is in your process. Hopefully tomorrow, but I'm not sure what Tim meant as the 'final offer.'"
I think he meant that they wouldn't be making any more offers if Beltran didn't accept their most recent one.
It boils down to the GM blabbing to the press and jeopardizing the negotiations, since the Mets' offer already supposedly exceeds the Astros ($112 million, 7 years). Of course, both offers far exceed the one the Cubs have made. Unless my
open letter actually sways Beltran, it's looking pretty unlikely he'll be in a Cubs uniform next year.
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Grudzy Goes To The Cardinals
By Mike J.
It's been reported that former Cub Mark Grudzielanek has signed a
1-year, $1 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. My initial reaction was one of confusion to the significant pay cut Grudzy is taking from the $2.5 he earned in 2004- perhaps there's still some questions about his Achilles heel?
You can call this a good move for several reasons, one being the cheap price (I'd rather have the Grudz for $1 million for a year than Neifi), but mostly because the Cardinals didn't sign Roberto Alomar.
More to come later.
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Offers On The Table
By Mike J.
According to
Mike Kiley at the Sun-Times (thanks
Cubs for Breakfast), the Cubs have made an offer to Carlos Beltran similar to the one he received from the Houston Astros:
"Boras told the Associated Press on Tuesday that all teams involved in the Beltran negotiations had tendered offers. It's believed that the Cubs, if they become serious contenders, would come close to the six-year, $90 million bid the Houston Astros are thought to have made in trying to retain Beltran."
In same breath Kiley also mentions that Hendry has not talked to Scott Boras in the last week.
The Mets have also made a considerable offer, possibly the best yet, and its entirely possible Beltran would call Shea Stadium his new home in 2005. Somehow I just don't think its going to happen, though- even though Boras' initial demands for Beltran's contract (10 years, $200 million) were ridiculous, it stills feels like Beltran isn't motivated by money as much as wanting to play for a team he thinks is a contender and will be for the duration of the contract. Don't get me wrong, he clearly wants a good deal - that's why you hire Boras - but he also just flat out doesn't want to play for certain teams.
If the Cubs have really made a comparable offer to Houston's for Beltran, then I offer this open letter to Carlos in hopes that I can sway (or solidify) his opinion.
***
Dear Carlos Beltran:
As a Cub fan, I clearly want you to come play in Chicago during the prime of your career for selfish reasons, but there are other practical reasons as well. First, you will be playing for a team that will be a contender for years and years to come. Houston may have Roy Oswalt and Roger Clemens, but Clemens won't likely pitch for more than another year, and then their starting rotation is average at best.
What about the rest of the team? you might ask. Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell are two seasons away from officially being qualified as old and busted, while the Cubs are bursting with new hotness: in fact, Glendon Rusch's nickname
is the "New Hotness." Well, at least it should be. The point is that the Cubs have a lot of young talent that they're in a good position to resign for a long time and no one on their team has done something as silly as tear an ACL while playing flag football at a church function (and Sosa doesn't count).
You'll fit right in with the Cubs players, who know how to welcome a star into their midst- just ask Nomar. Corey Patterson will move over to left field before you know it and even leave a welcome mint on the warning track in center for you. I've heard rumors that your wife wasn't accepted well by the players' wives in Houston, and there's nothing to worry about if you come to Chicago. They'll help her get involved in the many wonderful charities in addition to being celebrities of their own. Is the best woman soccer player in the world/ever a player's wife for the Astros? We all know the answer to that.
There's only two teams that have a World Series drought as long as the Boston Red Sox did, the Cubs and the White Sox, and no one likes the White Sox. If you came to the Cubs and helped to win a World Series, your name would be remembered by all of Chicago for hundreds of years and would certainly get a day named in your honor by the same governor who said publicly that Steve Bartman would not receive a pardon from him.
If nothing else convinces you, Mr. Beltran, remember the 7 games that you played in Wrigley where you batted .900 and hit 28 home runs: you could play 81 games a season there!
You will likely make a decision by this weekend, and for many reasons, I hope that you pick the Chicago Cubs.
Sincerely,
Mike Jansen
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Just Barely
By Mike J.
The exit polls were correct- Ryno is officially a
Hall of Famer by 6 votes. In other news,
Dale Bowman is an idiot.
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And The Exit Polls Say...
By Mike J.
The Hall of Fame voting results are in tomorrow. Is there any way to tell if former Cub Ryne Sandberg made the hall in his third try? Let's go to OSC's exit polls to get an idea:
***
At ESPNPage 2 Roundtable- Crasnick: "I guess Sandberg suffered in the balloting because he quit a year or two too early, he was a boring interview, and he didn't dive for balls. People have to judge him against other second basemen. It appears he's now making the requisite progress to make it to Cooperstown this year or next."
Jayson Stark- "He's the only second baseman ever to start nine All-Star Games. And from 1982-92, he led all second basemen in average, homers, RBI, runs, extra-base hits, OPS, fielding percentage and 500-assist seasons. So about all he didn't do was bake the pizzas at Geno's."
On the "Sandberg Game"Phil Hersh at Chicagosports.com- "Finally, there is Ryne Sandberg. There was that game he hit 17 home runs against the Cardinals, prompting manager Whitey Herzog to call him 'Baby Ruth' (it was really 5-for-6 with seven RBIs and two homers, but legends grow), but Sandberg also retired with more home runs than any second baseman in history. And he won nine straight Gold Gloves."
Carrie Muskat at MLB.com- "Sandberg won nine Gold Gloves, seven Silver Slugger awards and was the National League Most Valuable Player in 1984. In 1990, he led the National League with 40 home runs and 116 runs. He played a Major League record 123 games without an error, and compiled 12 errorless streaks of at least 40 games...
"And do you remember where you were for the 'Sandberg game?' On June 23, 1984, he drove in seven runs for the Cubs against the St. Louis Cardinals. Sandberg hit consecutive homers off Sutter in the ninth and 10th innings.
"'One day, I think he was one of the best players in the NL. The next day I think he's one of the best players I've ever seen,' former Cardinals manager Whitey Herzog said."
Fer itThe Holland Sentinel- "So history tells us its going to happen. But why has it taken so long? Sandberg was the greatest second baseman of his era, and only Joe Morgan had a better career at second since the 1930s.
"The reason is Jeff Kent. In this current offensive explosion, Kent broke Sandberg's career record for home runs by a second baseman by one this year (278-277). Kent also has knocked in 100 runs in seven seasons, tying the record for the position."
Fox Sports- "Let me try to very clear about this: any Hall of Fame voter who opts to once again deny Ryne Sandberg a place in Cooperstown should not only have his BBWAA badge revoked but should also be banned from watching baseball for life."
Dan McGrath at Chicagosports.com- "Critics scoff that his numbers wouldn't be so hot if he played any position other than second base, but that's a specious argument: a second baseman is part of the lineup, and a second baseman who swings the bat the way Sandberg did makes a team that much stronger."
The Olympian- "Ryne Sandberg. Came close last year and there is no reason he shouldn't make it. For a decade, he was the gold standard for the second base position in the National League. Add the highest field percentage ever for a second baseman to 282 home runs and 2,386 hits and what do you get? An X by his name."
The Kansas City Star (registration required)- "I always thought Sandberg was overrated because he was on WGN all the time, and Wrigley Field inflated his numbers, and Harry Caray was always singing his praises. Detroit's Lou Whitaker was just about the same player, and he got almost no Hall of Fame support. But, as Bill James helpfully pointed out, that's not Sandberg's fault. Sandberg won nine Gold Gloves, his career numbers are similar to perhaps the greatest second baseman ever, Joe Morgan, and he is one of two second basemen to win an MVP award the last 25 years. He belongs."
Agin' itDale Bowman at the Sun-Times- "I saw more of Sandberg than any one human should have to suffer. It was bad enough to have to listen to collective love-sick sighs every time he came to bat. Even worse, as a fan, was watching Sandberg make it through entire seasons without getting his uniform dirty...
"Great fielders, Hall of Fame fielders, get to balls. For Sandberg fans, let me translate: That means diving for balls."
***
In regards to the Bowman column against Sandberg: trying to understand his reasoning will make you crazy. The crux of his argument is that Sandberg didn't get dirty enough and didn't dive for balls, an observation that to my knowledge isn't tracked (unless there's a Uni's Dirtied stat buried in Baseball Prospectus somewhere). To back up his argument that has no basis in his statistics - just his personal experience - he quotes fielding stat after fielding stat that shows Sandberg is nearly as good as many Hall of Fame second baseman. Even though the stats themselves are suspect, you could argue for Sandberg's inclusion into the Hall using the same stats he uses not to vote for him.
Anyway, even if our exit polls have as big of a margin of error as the presidential exit polls did, it looks like Sandberg might finally be making it to the Hall tomorrow.
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It Actually Is a Three-Way Deal
By Mike J.
Even though the Yankees turned up their noses at Paul DePodesta and those shifty Dodgers after the original Randy Johnson deal collapsed, it looks like it will be a three-way deal after all. Depending on if the Randy trade is executed, Shawn Green will go to the Diamondbacks for Yankees prospect Dioner Navarro, cash, and a pitching prospect. If the deal collapses, again, the Green trade will still happen, but with a different set of prospects.
Shawn Green was a name connected with possible Sosa trades, and I'm not all that disappointed to see him come off the market. Although his AVG/OBP/SLG line was reasonable last year (.266/.352/.459) its not really better than Sosa's (.253/.332/.517) , who played in 30 less games than Green.
I would still like to see Sosa traded, but if the Cubs can't land Beltran as a result of the trade there's no reason to trade him just to see him out of the clubhouse. With a big chip on his shoulder Sosa could become very productive in the last year of his contract (assuming the Cubs would buy him out for $4.5 million in 2006).
Of course, with the January 8th arbitration deadline looming we'll be seeing something happening shortly, whether it involves the Cubs or not.
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