Go read Rich Lederer's interview with Bill James at Baseball Analysts. After Rich's series on James' Baseball Abstracts, he knows so much about the material that he's surprising James himself with the quotes that he throws back at him. Its good stuff.
***
Today's quote from Mesa (this seems to be turning into a daily "thing") is Dusty Baker on Angel Guzman:
"He's showing better control than almost anybody, especially a young guy whose mechanics are so good. He's such a valuable commodity we still have to monitor him some. We don't want him to come back with that arm sore. His mechanics are so good, guys are surprised he got hurt in the first place."
There's certainly no need to rush Guzman, since there are a handful of guys who are competing for the fifth spot already. While I remain confident that the spot is Glendon Rusch's to lose, Sergio Mitre and Ryan Dempster have a chance as well.
Carrie Muskat writes that "Rusch's status may be determined by how many lefties they want in the bullpen," but I think that's bull. If Rusch pitches well enough to be the fifth starter, I think he's more valuable working as the only southpaw starting pitcher than being another lefthander in the bullpen. Prior, Wood, and Zambrano are all very good but very similar pitchers, and just having someone with a different look could help keep things new for opposing hitters. Of course, this is speculation since something like that would be a hard thing to measure, but regardless Rusch should be a starter if he can pitch well enough.
You know baseball can't start soon enough when I get excited at the announcement of the opening day starters. According to the Chicago Tribune, Dusty Baker has decided to start Kerry Wood in the first game of the season, followed by Mark Prior and Greg Maddux and then Carlos Zambrano in the home opener. Personally I am fine with his decisions, especially because I think the opening day starter thing is nothing special. Kerry Wood probably isn't the best starter in the rotation but he is the longest current Cub and deserves to be the first guy out there this season. I sure wouldn't want Zambrano out there on the first day because knowing his excitement he would probably strikeout like 16 and walk about 10. On the other hand, I guess the home opener is probably just as dangerous for Big Z. The order of the rotation is more of a status symbol anyway and if that is the case, Kerry Wood should be the face of the rotation.
In other interesting news, Baker is apparently ready to let Michael Barrett catch for Greg Maddux. While I applaud the fact that the best offensive catcher we have will likely be playing most of the days I still have some concerns about whether he can handle the work. Barrett is still a young guy though and if anyone can handle it I'm sure he can. The Cubs are going to need every day they can get out of Barrett because Henry Blanco isn't going to blow people away in the backup role. Blanco might be a step above Paul Bako but that isn't saying much. I personally will be happy to know that the lineup won't be automatically hurt on Maddux pitching days but we will have to wait and see how many games Barrett will be able to play. Considering the options at backup it would be wise to make sure that Barrett doesn't get hurt from over work.
Anyway, that's all I have for today. Not a whole lot going on so far this spring training which considering the injury news from last year is probably a good thing. Thankfully spring training games will start soon and we will start to have some of the many questions answered.
- posted by Mike R.
@ 12:42 PM |
Friday, February 25, 2005
Anybody Got Tickets?
By Mike J.
The mad rush to buy tickets for the 2005 season is at full speed, and as of 1:40pm CST the following games have already sold out except for a few single seats:
Apr 8 vs. Brewers
May 21 vs. White Sox
May 22 vs White Sox
June 10 vs. Red Sox
June 11 vs. Red Sox
June 12 vs. Red Sox
Aug 13 vs. Cardinals
The Red Sox games would have been fun to go attend, if only to see how many people showed up with brillo pads stuck to their face in homage of Matt Clement. Those games also happen to fall in the week right before I graduate from college, and while I won't be able to celebrate in the Friendly Confines, I'll certainly be at Mullen's or The Cubby Bear down the street cheering anyway.
***
Down in Mesa Dusty Baker is expounding on his plan for Jerry Hairston:
"I want him to get comfortable with the guys on the infield and have him go back and forth. He'll start with the infield and see what he can do at second base to spell Todd [Walker]. He'll get comfortable with Nomar [Garciaparra], get comfortable with Neifi [Perez], double-play exchanges, learn the different guys."
Baker also will play him in the outfield some, which sets up the possibility of Hairston assuming a utility role in the strain of Chone Figgins, who did it all for Anaheim last year. If injuries plague the Cubs or there's trouble in the outfield, Hairston could see a lot of playing time. However, it remains to be seen if that will be a good thing or a bad thing, since Hairston's capabilities are largely unproven.
In related news, baseball season needs to start now. Otherwise, I might have to subscribe to MLB.tv just to get my fix.
Magglio Ordonez is looking good in a Tigers uniform, apparently at 100% in time for Spring Training. Phil Rogers is reporting that Ordonez is showing no ill effects from his knee surgery:
"He did everything his new teammates did in the first full workout--agility drills, fielding drills and batting practice, including some live swings off the Tigers' pitchers.
"...When Ordonez ran his first short sprint in the Tigers' conditioning drills, he actually ran out of his right shoe. He sent a long home run into the pine trees in left-center on his fifth swing off Triple-A manager Larry Parrish."
While this certainly sounds encouraging, I would think that having a shoe falling off during sprints is a bad thing for someone so recently removed from knee surgery. Ordonez's health means that he could stay off the DL for less than 25 days, which means the Tigers could be saddled with a long-term, overpriced contract.
If he stays healthy and produces numbers similar to before the knee injury, the 5-year, $75 million contract might be worth it. If some freak accident occurs after the first year -- say, an untied shoe falling off and sending Maggs tumbling -- then they're in trouble.
***
Also from the Phil Rogers department is an article coming to the defense of Dusty Baker. I don't like Phil Rogers' writing and I'm not much of a Dusty fan either. Rogers phrases the Baker-Sosa confrontation like this:
Blindsided by Sosa's 162nd-game betrayal, Baker finally got around to calling him after he was traded to Baltimore. He reveals that their conversation was brief and unsatisfying.
"It's the first time in my life I didn't have a clue where and why," Baker said about the soured relationship.
The tipping point seemed to come when Sun-Times reporter Mike Kiley reached Sosa on his cell phone hours after Sosa had fled Wrigley Field in the early innings of the season's final game. While inquiring about the early departure, Kiley relayed to Sosa that Baker had said he wanted his right fielder "mentally and physically ready" in 2005.
Rogers manages to do an extremely poor job of defending Dusty Baker and his ability to handle the situation. One would think that minimizing the amount of incriminating information about Dusty is the best way to defend him, but Rogers doesn't think so. Instead, Rogers makes the situation come out like this:
Mike Kiley, a reporter, told Sosa that Baker wanted him to be "mentally and physically ready" for next season. I don't know about you, but that sounds like code for "you're a whiner and you're out of shape," especially when its coming through a third party.
Not only does Dusty manage to insult Sosa, he then lets Sammy dwell on it for 4 months before even speaking to him. By saying that Dusty "finally got around" to calling Sosa, Rogers makes it sound like Baker was sooo busy with everything else -- probably encouraging fundamentals like not clogging the bases with walks -- that he just didn't have the time to call the alienated slugger.
After the phone call, Dusty does his Mike LaFontaine impression from A Mighty Wind and proclaims "Wha' happened?!" Including a quote like this does not make Dusty pitiable: it makes him look like even more of an ass.
I didn't mean for this to end up being another Dusty rant, but when Phil Rogers is involved, its just too hard to resist.
***
Today's QFFF (Quote From Fitch Field) is from Ryne Sandberg, on the Cubs retiring his No. 23:
"It's incredible. I was fortunate to be there when Ernie Banks' flag went up and Billy Williams' and Ron Santo's. I remember standing there thinking, 'Wow, that's one of the greatest honors.' To have a number flying at Wrigley Field makes it more special. It's a select group and they're friends of mine."
1) I found out that two of all-baseball.com's most knowledgable and talented writers are moving in together in a new home. Bryan Smith of Wait Til Next Year and Rich Lederer of Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT are now writing at The Baseball Analysts. If you never read them at all-baseball.com, now's a great time to get acquainted- I've already got them bookmarked.
2) In Cub news, Ron Santo did not receive the Ford C. Frick award for baseball broadcasting excellence, which means he'll have to wait until March 2nd to see if the Veterans Committee puts him in the Hall.
3) Today's Quote From Fitch Field is courtesy of Derrek Lee:
"Last year left a real bad taste in your mouth. It's like something got snatched away from you. You don't want to harp on last year but at the same time you don't want to forget it. It was definitely a bad feeling, and we want to make up for it this year."
Reading a chat transcript at Baseball Prospectus with Nate Silver, their PECOTA projection guy, I came across a little snippet that reminded me things aren't as bad as they seem. Here Silver responds to a comment from "Jim Hendry":
Jim Hendry (Toddlin' Town): Not to worry, Nate. I'll trade big Brian Dopirak (or B-Dope, as I call him) for Aubrey Huff in late July. And Angel Guzman for B.J. Ryan to top off the bullpen. Trust me. And thanks for da chat!
Nate Silver: In all seriousness, this is probably the best reason that one should err on the side of optimism with respect to the Cubs' chances. What Hendry might lack in creativity in January, he makes up for in July. And the Cubs have a deep farm system to work with.
Several good points are made here. One, B-Dope is a great nickname. Two, while the Cubs farm system isn't the best in the MLB, it is pretty darn deep and there's plenty to trade if the outfield doesn't come together. Three, its depressing that I'm already looking forward to July to see who gets traded. Finally, I have no idea what Toddlin' Town means. Anyone?
- posted by Mike J.
@ 10:49 AM |
Friday, February 18, 2005
The Return of JoBo?
By Mike R.
Call me desperate for any good news on the closer front as of late but in between all the fluff on Cubs.com from spring training there was an interesting note about Joe Borowski. In the article, Borowski claimed he was 100% and that he felt like he did two years ago. Now normally I would take such assurances with a heavy dose of salt coming from the actual player's mouth. Joe Borowski sure isn't going to come into camp telling everyone that he is 75% and then very quickly lose any chance at a job. However, listening the the radio I heard Bruce Levine report that JoBo was hitting 92 on the gun and looked like he was in great shape, even speculating that he had lost a good deal of weight. I am not saying that Bruce Levine is the ultimate source for Cub's news but in the face of Borowski's claims, Bruce's comments might be pretty close to the truth.
If you remember last year, one of the things that plagued Borowski was a drop in velocity. JoBo was consistently hitting 88 on the gun when one or two years ago he was hitting a consistent 92. After insisting that nothing was wrong, Borowski was eventually shut down and found to have a slight tear in his rotator cuff which he elected not to have surgery on. Now granted Borowski was pretty bad last year. His K/9 was down almost a whole strikeout but what was even more alarming was the increase in walks. In 2002 Borowski walked 29 men in 95.2 innings pitched and in 2003 he walked19 in 68.1 innings pitched. Then last year, Borowski suddenly walked 15 in only 21+ innings. I'm not an expert on what a rotator cuff injury can do to a pitcher but I would think that his loss of velocity might possibly lead to a little more nipping on the corners and consequently more walks and less strikeouts. I don't know if Borowski's problems last year can be wholly attributed to his injury but if he is healthy, spring training would be a good time to find out.
So if JoBo is really healthy, it raises the question of what the Cubs should do with him? If Borowski shows signs of his 2002 or 2003 form I think it would be a pretty good move to make him the closer. I know that the question marks about his injury may keep the Cubs from rushing him into that role but he should get a long look. In 2002 Borowski was a pretty good reliever and in 2003 he was a pretty good closer.
2002 - 95.2IP 84H 10HR 29BB 97K 2.73 ERA 2003 - 68.1IP 53 H 5HR 19BB 66 K 2.63 ERA 33-37 in save opportunities
JoBo will never be Eric Gagne and he will probably always be a master of the 5 out save but if healthy he is probably a better closer than anyone currently on the roster. Hawkins has better stuff but doesn't seem to have the makeup and Ryan Dempster's walks way too many guys and so really you are left with Borowski. The Cubs don't appear to be getting a closer in a trade anytime soon and like I said, the internal options aren't all that promising. Because of Borowski's injury concerns he should definitely be treated carefully and examined in detail. But if JoBo is healthy and ready to take the ball I don't see why he can't be this team's closer, especially when the options don't look much better. Maybe it's the underdog thing talking but I would love to see JoBo succeed one more time.
- posted by Mike R.
@ 9:05 AM |
Thursday, February 17, 2005
Sweet, Sweet Content
By Mike J.
Not a lot of real news, but at least there's plenty of quotes from the players who have arrived for Spring Training. Including the pitchers and catchers, Todd Hollandsworth, Corey Patterson, Jerry Hairston Jr., and David Kelton all showed up before Monday. If Jason Dubois were there, all of the Cubs' question-mark outfielders would be putting in extra time.
As far as Sosa's absence goes, everyone has an opinion. Or, at least, Carrie Muskat badgered one out of them:
"I don't have a comment for that. If you want to know something about Sammy, you should ask Dusty or [general manager] Jim Hendry or go to Baltimore and ask Sammy and go to the Grapefruit League. Sammy is a great ballplayer, he's a Hall of Famer. He was good when he was with us." -Carlos Zambrano
"It's going to be different. I think it'll be different for people who have been around here for a long time. He's a superstar and I don't think there's a guy in there who doesn't hope he does great in Baltimore. Our job is to come in here every day and make the most of it." -Todd Hollandsworth
"I'm not going to take shots at somebody who's not here anymore. Sammy seems to be happy going to Baltimore and we're happy moving forward. Just leave it as a positive note instead of a 'He said, she said' type of thing and both of us can be happy." -Mike Remlinger
"Hopefully this is the last we talk about it. It should be. This is a new team, a different team." -Mark Prior
Yeah, good luck with that one, Mark. There's nothing too offensive or notable in that collection, but I would guess that Todd Walker will take care of that one when he arrives on Monday.
- posted by Mike J.
@ 1:10 PM |
Wednesday, February 16, 2005
Pitcher Predictions
By Mike J.
Pitchers and catchers have reported to spring training, meaning that there might be some semblance of news possibly coming out of Mesa, Arizona now.
What lies in wait? Carrie Muskat's article at cubs.com sums things up nicely and brings some ignored storylines back into the mainstream. To honor the beginning of spring, I'll outline them and make some predictions on where things will head in 2005.
"It's time to see if Mark Prior can take his 16-strikeout effort in his last start of 2004 and carry that into 2005." I think this one is about as safe a guarantee that can be given heading into the new season. Prior struggled once returning from his Achilles injury, but he did dispel a lot of doubts with his final run of starts.
Prediction: Prior will be the most dominant pitcher of the Cubs' staff. Wood can be just as good, but his ability to stay healthy always makes me nervous.
"It's time to see if Joe Borowski's shoulder is healthy after a winter of rehab. It's time to see if Ryan Dempster can be the closer." Who will emerge as the closer in 2005? The only thing the offseason has shown us is that Dempster likes to talk to the media and when he does, he appears awfully confident. With much being made of the "closer mentality," maybe that's a good thing. I'd be more impressed if he improved on his careerstrikeout/walk ratio, which is a lousy 1.54.
Prediction: Dempster barely beats out Borowski for the job, but after disappointing early in the season Borowski will step up and reclaim the position.
"It'll be a busy spring. The Cubs staff needs to find a fifth arm to fit in with starters Prior, Maddux, Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano." This was an issue?
Prediction: Glendon Rusch. Duh.
"Maddux, 38, is vying for an unprecedented 18th consecutive 15-win season." Sure, Maddux is a master of control, but I think I've figured out how he gets into the batter's head. All he needs to do is throw one of these looks towards the plate and they freeze.
Prediction: Another 15 for Mad Dog.
"Zambrano, 23, would like double-digit victories for the third straight year. The young right-hander is coming off his best season in which he was 16-8 with a 2.75 ERA and an All-Star berth." Zambrano had an amazing season in 2004, and it will be hard to see him repeat that performance. The guy is only 23, though, and while he is crazy, he's a good sort of crazy. Not Julian Tavarez (aka Skeletor) crazy.
Prediction: An ERA above 3.00, but he'll still get 15 wins.
As I sit back and continue to wait for pitchers and catchers to report, I notice that its just about time for predictions to start rolling in. There's one for the NL Central at MLB.com by Jim Molony that does a pretty good job covering all the bases and it includes links to spring training previews for all teams as well. The quick and dirty version of Molony's predictions break down like this-
While I'm not exactly sold on how third through sixth place will shake out, I would agree that the Cardinals should be first and the Cubs in second. Even if the Cubs had a better offseason than they did, the Cardinals kept themselves in pretty good shape. Let's also not forget they won 105 games last year: almost everyone expects a regression, but until the champ loses he's still the champ. A wild card spot for the Cubs is possible, but there's so many question marks that rolling a die could predict their finish about as accurately as any guess of mine.
I'm still going to guess, though. Just not quite yet.
- posted by Mike J.
@ 11:26 AM |
Thursday, February 10, 2005
Addition by Subtraction
By Mike R.
With yesterday's trading of Kyle Farnsworth to the Detroit Tigers, Jim Hendry has finally succeeded in his removal of all of the Cub malcontents and cancers. The only problem is that this doesn't even come close to making this team any better. This entire offseason seems to have been predicated upon the fact that what was keeping the Cubs from the playoffs last year wasn't OBP, or a subpar bullpen, but rather a couple of players who brought the rest of the team down. From letting Alou and Mercker go to trading away Sosa and Farnsworth and getting little in return, Hendry has seemed determined to clean up the clubhouse as a means to make this team better. But does anyone really think that a couple of whining players and a loud boom box are what caused the Cubs to under achieve? I honestly don't think that Sammy's music or Farnsworth kicking fans made the Cubs ignore the walk or made the bullpen terrible.
For instance, let's look at Moises Alou. Alou was allowed to leave without a contract offer even though he expressed some interest in remaining with Chicago. From what I have read from the players on the team, Alou was actually a good clubhouse influence, acting as somewhat of a leader on the team. Alou had a great season last year but was probably due for a decline this year in addition to another year of his horrendous base running and defense. Granted, I am not a Moises Alou defender but wouldn't he look pretty nice at about $6 million compared to the $5 million that Jeromy Burnitz is getting.
How about Kent Mercker, another guy who seemed to cause a lot of problems last year. Mercker also had a great season last year and much like Alou is probably due for a regression this season. However, by letting him go, Hendry has left this team without a lefty in the pen who can get out lefties. We all know Mike Remlinger might as well be right handed because he sure is worthless against lefties. So now, the Cubs are forced to either find a lefty in the minors which might or might not work or use Glendon Rusch in the pen and find a fifth starter. Once again, I am not a fan of what Mercker did last year but his lose has created a pretty big hole in the bullpen that looks to be filled by the likes of a Stephen Randolph or Will Ohman.
The theme here seems to have been that the Cubs needed to clean house regardless of the consequences to this team. The removal of Sosa and Alou has left the Cubs with giant questions marks in the outfield and the loss of Farnsworth and Mercker has left similair question marks in the pen. Maybe Hendry will still go out and get another reliever but maybe he won't. Regardless, the quest to remove the cancers from this team has left the Cubs with some pretty sizable holes. Perhaps individually these players all needed to go but when seen as a whole, along with the other moves, the Cubs look like a worse team as a result. Perhaps the removal of all of these bad apples will have a noticeably positive effect, but until I see that change, I have to believe that in curing the disease, the Cubs have done a little too much damage to the body. - posted by Mike R.
@ 11:24 AM |
Wednesday, February 09, 2005
Sell Your Farnsworth Jerseys
By Mike J.
The Farns won't be reporting in a week in Arizona because Jim Hendry just traded him for a handful of players to the Detroit Tigers, including Roberto Novoa, infielder Scott Moore and outfielder Clarence "Bo" Flowers, plus a player to be named later.
I don't really want anyone who takes his rage out on an electric fan to be on the Cubs' roster, much less someone that never learned what control is. Besides Novoa I don't think we'll see anyone come up this year to contribute, but Hendry did manage to get some formerly top-rated prospects that could develop in the near future or be used as trade pieces later on in the season. - posted by Mike J.
@ 2:04 PM |
Interview With Christian Ruzich
By Mike J.
All-baseball.com is home to many excellent writers: I could go through the list, but every blog is as worthy of mention as the one preceding it. Readers of Old Style Cubs are probably most familiar with Christian Ruzich, or Ruz, from The Cub Reporter, but he's responsible for a lot more than that. Not only does he update The Transaction Guy in addition to TCR, he also founded the whole site about a year ago.
Until recently, I had no idea who the man behind the curtain really was, and curiosity got the best of me. Ruz took some time to answer a few questions of mine about A-B, the Cubs, and baseball in general via email, and without further ado, here are his responses.
***
Some general questions first:
Age? 34
Where are you living now? Cuyamaca, California -- a tiny town in the mountains east of San Diego with my lovely wife and my six-month-old daughter.
Education? College graduate with a B.A. in French History, which has been basically useless in my post-college life, but was lots of fun at the time.
Job back in the real world?http://www.cuttersedge.com -- we manufacture fire rescue saws for sale for fire departments and municipalities around the world. My dad started the company about 20 years ago and currently I run the international sales and also manage our domestic dealers.
Now for the real questions:
This one's obligatory: How and when did you really get hooked on baseball? What made you want to write about it?
I was a huge Cubs fan as a little kid, starting in the mid-70s when it was really easy to get day-of-game bleacher tickets. I remember Jose Cardenal, Bobby Murcer, all-star Steve Swisher, and a lot of sub-.500 teams. Good times...
I got re-hooked in college, once I discovered fantasy baseball, and started writing when I moved to the Bay Area and discovered the Internet. My first-ever entries from 1997 are available at http://www.all-baseball.com/ref/basenews97.html.
It wasn't until the summer of 2001, though, that I really got serious about it. I stumbled upon John Perricone's Only Baseball Matters site (now at www.onlybaseball.com) and realized that if I wrote about the Cubs, and was decent, people would read what I had to say. Where did the idea for A-B come from, and how did you manage to put together such an excellent group of writers?
The idea came from the fact that I had bought the URL in '99 or so just for the heck of it. I was writing The Cub Reporter at www.cubreporter.com but a mix-up with my registrar meant I lost it, so I had nowhere to put my content. I ended up activating All-Baseball.com, and after a while I felt like it would be a good idea to aggregate a bunch of the writers I read every day into one place. I knew I'd like to see a bunch of good writers banded together, and I figured other people would too.
The first person I approached was Alex Belth, who writes Bronx Banter. He was up for joining me, so I (along with lots of help from my partner Mark McClusky) got him up and running in July of '03. Around the same time Will Carroll was looking for a place to host his blog, so I grabbed him, and Mike Carminati of Mike's Baseball Rants came on after the season.
The rest of the crew (Jon Weisman, Peter White, Rich Lederer, Bryan Smith, Jeff Shaw, Alex Ciepley, Ken Arneson, Scott Long, and Derek Smart) have come on since and are responsible for making All-Baseball.com what it is today.
Basically, the way I put the group together was just to ask. All of these guys are guys I was reading anyway, and who I thought would be great additions to the site. I haven't been wrong yet!
Besides writing for A-B, what duties do you have behind the scenes?
There's quite a bit of stuff that goes on behind the scenes. One of the things we worked on throughout the year (and will continue to refine) is having fresh content on the A-B home page. This is stuff that doesn't fit on any individual blog page, pointers to great stuff elsewhere on the Web, newsletters, roundtable discussions, etc. In addition, we have to make sure the Movable Type installation stays up and running and other mundane technical stuff like that. I don't do all of it -- it's a collective job and one of the things we're focusing on this off-season is making sure the things that need to get done, get done.
We're also working on the next iteration of the site, and we hope to have some really great (and unique) features in place by Opening Day '05 that will make A-B even better than it already is. Since you founded A-B, what has been the most exciting moment for you in the whole experience?
There have been a few. The day we got Bronx Banter up and running, because it felt like the beginning of something really cool. The 2004 playoffs, when we ran a (if I do say so myself) tremendous series of email exchanges between the cream of the crop of the playoff teams' blogs. Every day we set a new traffic record, or get mentioned on ESPN.com. There are a lot of really exciting things about A-B -- it's been incredibly rewarding and gratifying. What baseball sites or blogs do you visit on a daily basis? Excluding the boys at A-B, got any favorite writers?
My daily must-read list includes Batgirl, USS Mariner and The McCovey Chronicles -- I think those are the three best-written team-specific blogs out there. I have a Prospectus Premium account, and I enjoy Joe Sheehan, Derek Zumsteg, and Steven Goldman there. Steve Treder and Studes at Hardball Times are writing some great stuff. King Kaufman at Salon and Tim Marchman of the New York Sun are the best among the somewhat-more-established websites. I read most of the big sites, too, but the people who write for those sites don't need me to plug them. What's the best deal so far this offseason and why?
I'll give you three, in three different cost categories:
* Mark Grudzielanek to the Cardinals for $1M -- now that he's not a Cub I can appreciate Grudz for what he is, which is a pretty solid middle infielder. He's no all-star, but he's going to put up a million dollars worth of numbers for the Cardinals.
* Wade Miller to the Red Sox for $1.5M plus incentives -- Miller is incredibly talented, has command of five pitches, and won't be a free agent until after 2006. If he can come back from his rotator cuff injury and (more importantly) tweak his delivery, he could end up being a 20-game winner for Boston. I'm glad he's out of the NL Central.
* Nomar Garciaparra back to the Cubs for $8M -- a challenge contract to a guy who will, I predict, rise to the challenge. He thinks he's worth superstar money but knows he's going to have to put up superstar numbers to get it next year. I'm glad he's going to put them up for my team. OK, let's talk Cubs. Over $1 billion has been spent on free agents by the league, and a good portion of it on contracts of questionable length and value. The Cubs still have a couple of glaring holes as well (closer and left field jump to mind)...did Jim Hendry make a mistake by not signing a big name or is this an offseason where sitting tight may be better in the long run?
Hendry didn't make a mistake by not signing a big name. Signing a big name is only good if you do it intelligently, and I think the bet thing Hendry did this winter was *not* overpay for Carlos Beltran or Magglio Ordonez. He could have (And probably should) have been a little more active in finding middle-of-the-road players to fill the Cubs' holes, but paying a big name a lot of money for a lot of years is almost never a good idea. Its hard to predict performance, but which Cub pitcher will have the best season, barring injury? Glendon Rusch, Carlos Zambrano, and Greg Maddux were all "the man" at some point last year, so its not entirely a given that the 1-2 starters should be Prior-Wood or Wood-Prior. I will always answer "Mark Prior" to this question. I think he got forgotten about a little bit in 2004 because of all the injury problems, but this is a guy who was labeled as a "can't miss" pitcher with some of the best mechanics ever, and he's still just 24 years old.
Zambrano's ceiling might be almost as high, but I worry that his temper (and overuse) may get the better of him. Prior being injured for parts of two seasons might turn out to be the best thing that ever happened to him. Whether or not Sosa stays or goes, what sort of year do you think he will have?
Well, the stay-go part got determined between when you asked this question and when I answered it. Baltimore played as a hitter's park last year, though it's been a pitcher's park for much of its history. In a lineup with Melvin Mora, Miguel Tejada, and Javy Lopez, I'd say Sammy's good for 35/100, but I don't se his batting average inching up over about .270. In short, a player who's worth somewhat less that $17M. This is what I meant when I talked about the folly of long-term contracts. Any hints on the upcoming changes to A-B, or is it all under wraps?
Can't give you any hints because a lot of it is still up in the air. We've spent the last few months banging through a process that will, hopefully, take us from a plucky little band of baseball bloggers to a multinational corporate that will rule the world, or at least will allow us to add new features and new writers so we can continue to have A-B be one of the best baseball sites on the web. One last question, just out of curiosity: is there a fantasy league for the A-B writers? If there is, who cleaned up in 2004? If not, who would have?
There was, but I honestly don't remember who won. I can tell you that it certainly wasn't me -- I'm the Washington Senators of fantasy baseball.
If you're looking for a well-written but ridiculously depressing article to read, head over to the Hardball Times for a look back at the 1961-1965 Cubs by Steve Treder. Here's possibly the most cheerful excerpt:
"Mediocrity was specifically in the form of an 82-80 won-lost record, not much of a winning record but a winning record nonetheless, the team's first since 1946. It yielded only a seventh-place finish in the ten-team league, but the Cubs finished almost as close to first place (17 games behind) as they did to ninth (16 games ahead). It was cause for joy in Wrigleyville, as attendance jumped by more than 50% over that of 1962."
At least it ain't as bad now as it was in the 1960s, right? - posted by Mike J.
@ 1:24 AM |
Monday, February 07, 2005
Maggs Signed By Tigers
By Mike J.
Hungover from too many buffalo wings, pizza rolls, and chips and dip while watching the Super Bowl yesterday, I've found out today that the Detroit Tigers signed Magglio Ordonez to a 5-year $75 million contract. The figures and injury clauses are making my head throb right now, so here it is from the article verbatim:
"Under the complicated deal, Detroit would have the right to void the contract after the 2005 season if Ordonez has a reoccurrence of the left knee injury that hampered his production with the Chicago White Sox for most of last year and the reoccurrence lands him on the disabled list for 25 days or more.
The 31-year-old Ordonez gets a $6 million signing bonus and a $6 million salary in 2005, meaning the Tigers' exposure is $12 million.
His contract calls for a $15 million salary in 2006, $12 million in 2007, $15 million in 2008 and $18 million in 2009. Detroit has a $15 million option for 2010 with a $3 million buyout and a $15 million option for 2011 with no buyout."
The first bit about the reoccuring knee injury is prudent, but the rest hardly seems so. I'd love for the Cubs to have signed a player like Ordonez this offseason, but I haven't seen a reasonable contract for an elite player yet. Like my friend Bob pointed out, owner Mike Ilitch must be pumping the Red Wings' budget into the Tigers since the NHL has officially dropped off the face of the earth. - posted by Mike J.
@ 11:48 AM |
Friday, February 04, 2005
Locking Them Up
By Mike R.
The Cubs completed what has turned into a busy week by signing Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano to one year deals. According to ESPN, the Cubs will give Ramirez $8.95 million this year, a three million dollar raise from his salary last year. I think it's a fine deal because the Cubs will now avoid arbitration with Ramirez and should be able to sign him for a long term deal in the near future. It's been quite a while since the Cubs have had that kind of a player at third base and they would do good to keep him there for a little while.
In terms of Zambrano, I think the Cubs once again did pretty well. Zambrano will be paid $3.76 million, up from his paltry $475,000 last year. I know that Zambrano is young and that the Cubs have him for a couple more years but you really have to love money like that when you consider the pitcher free agent market. Thankfully the Cubs should be able to get Big Z on the cheap for a couple more years.
Hidden near the end of the ESPN article about the Cubs signing Ramirez and Zambrano was a little note that said the Cubs had agreed to a minor league contract with Dave Hansen and have invited him to spring training as a non-roster invitee. Hansen spent some time with the Cubs back in 1997 and was a solid, if not unspectacular bench player for Seattle and San Diego last year. Though not possessed of any real power, Hansen can take a walk or two, is a lefty, and could back up Aramis Ramirez at third. As I was looking at Hansen's stats from last year I noticed that he saw a pretty ridiculous 4.34 pitchers per plate appearance which if he had logged enough at bats would have put him number one in the NL last. To be honest I wouldn't mind Hansen at all as the third utility infielder along with Hairston and Neifi. Hansen sure has a lot more to add to this team than Jose Macias and the Cubs don't really need Macias' versatility now that they have Hairston. Unfortunately Jose Macias isn't going anywhere and so room would have to be made on the roster in order for Hansen to be playing at Wrigley this April.
There's an interesting column over at foxsports.com by Dayn Perry about how Dusty Baker needs to be held accountable if the Cubs fall out of contention in 2005. He rightfully lambasts Dusty for his inability to make amends with Sosa:
"As for Baker, he was derelict in his duties by not speaking to Sosa since Oct. 4 of last year. By no means is Sosa blameless in this flap, but it's Baker's job to extinguish mini-controversies of this nature, not allow them to fester."
I completely agree with these sentiments- in the past I was willing to let some of Baker's decisions slide in light of the fact that the Cubs actually won a playoff series in 2003, but he's trying his hardest to show his ineptitude in the managerial position.
The rest of the column is spent going over the possibilities in the outfield - nothing we haven't heard before - but he ends by taking a huge shot at Baker:
"You've probably heard it parroted in some circles that the Cubs had to, or needed to, get rid of Sosa to be able to position themselves for contention in 2005. Nonsense. What they needed was a manager who would do what he's paid to do - put out fires and maintain some semblance of esprit de corps. Baker has failed miserably on both counts. If the Cubs' efforts in 2005 come to grief, and they probably will, it's Baker who should be the first casualty." (emph. added)
While I've argued that Sosa did in fact needed to be traded, I realized I've been operating under the notion that getting rid of Dusty would be impossible because of the PR path the Cubs organization took at the end of the season. It wouldn't surprise me to find out that the front office does think it owes Baker something for almost leading their team to the World Series. If the Sosa situation had been reconcilable - something that would have been a lot more likely if Dusty ever bothered to talk to Sosa - the Cubs would find themselves in better shape for the coming season.
While watching Bill Belichick and the Patriots dismantle the Colts a few weeks ago, I wondered if any baseball manager ever had a comparable impact on his team. No one came to mind, and when I sent Rob Neyer an email to confirm my suspicions he agreed, but named Earl Weaver as a top candidate. After watching Dusty manage, I disagree with my previous stance- a manager can have an impact comparable to Belichick, but only in the opposite direction.
The best Cub fans can hope for in 2005 is to never see Dusty's name in the news.
Well, I promised I would wait to weigh in on the Sosa deal until I thought the side deals were all done and the big picture would be clearer. Let's just say that I am less than impressed. Basically for what the Cubs would have paid Sammy Sosa, they will instead get Jeromy Burnitz, a talented but often injured bench player, and two prospects who are redundant in the Cub's system. Back when I first saw this deal I thought it would only be ok if the Cubs were able to get a everyday outfielder and or a closer with the money or those prospects. The Cubs sure don't need the prospects as Mike Fontenot is basically Richard Lewis version 2.0 and Dave Crouthers will get lost in the shuffle of deep minor league pitching staff. I would still like to see Hendry attempt to move these two guys for something that will make this team better like a closer. Instead of moving the prospects Hendry took the money and went and spent it on Jeromy Burnitz. I think at the very best Jeromy Burnitz could match Sammy's numbers for this year and at the very worst...well I don't think I need to go there.
The Cubs still have a very large question mark in left field. Although some of the reporters claim Hairston has been told he will start, I find that hard to believe. Hairston is a fine player and I like him and his excitement but he has had actually one good season and even that season was ended early. Plus, Hairston hardly has the power to be a corner outfielder even if the Cubs do get above average power from other positions like SS and 2B. If Hairston were to repeat his 2004 campaign he could be a good table setter for the Cubs but I think he lacks a position. So if Hairston is out of the question that leaves the Cubs once again with Hollandubois. I think Dubois deserves a chance to start for this team because I really don't see any purpose in sending him back down to AAA. Are the Cubs hoping that maybe if they put him back in Iowa he will hit 50 home runs? It seems that Dubois has done everything he could to earn a starting spot but realistically, with Dusty Baker at the helm, I see Dubois platooning with Hollandsworth.
So for the second straight year it looks like the Cubs will enter the season with a huge question mark at one of their positions. Only this year the Cubs have a question mark over their entire outfield. You know you are in trouble when Corey Patterson is your most stable offensive outfielder. We can only hope that Jeromy Burnitz exceeds expectations which actually shouldn't be that hard because Cub's fans are about ready to boo him as he runs out to right field on opening day. Because without some expectation exceeding, the Cubs are going to be in trouble. - posted by Mike R.
@ 11:01 AM |
Wednesday, February 02, 2005
Making Lemonade
By Mike J.
Sammy Sosa is set to take his physical and Jeromy Burnitz is ready to agree to a one-year deal for $5 million immediately after the trade is completed. After signing Greg Maddux before spring training and the beauty that was the Nomar deal at the trading deadline in 2004, Jim Hendry has earned some respect as a GM from Cub fans, but this Sosa fiasco has a lot of people scratching their heads and some shouting that the Cubs are screwed in 2005.
Which, of course, they are not. Jim Hendry needed to trade Sosa this offseason, but it was extremely important that Hendry didn't just dump him to someone like the Nationals and pay his entire salary in the process. Sosa would have been a giant distraction all year, one that Dusty Baker has shown he could not handle in the clubhouse. Ideally the Cubs would trade Sosa early in order to free up room in the budget to pursue Carlos Beltran or another big name, but it didn't happen.
So what did Hendry do? He made the best of a bad situation. No team was going to pay the majority of Sosa's salary in 2005 besides the Cubs, so Hendry dealt Sosa to the Orioles for Jerry Hairston, Jr. and a pair of prospects. The Cubs ended up paying a lot of Sosa's salary, but they got a potential starting outfielder and enough freedom to acquire another outfielder.
Of course, all the elite outfielders were busy signing looong contracts for way more cash than the Cubs were willing to spend (and shouldn't have spent even if they dealt Sosa early in the season). Instead, Hendry will sign Jeromy Burnitz, a guy who has taken an absolute beating online the last few days. The question- is he really that bad, or is he just that bad in comparison to who the Cubs didn't sign?
I admit, the former Rockies outfielder had some pretty bad numbers away from Coors Field in 2004, batting a .244/.327/.448 AVG/OBP/SLG. The Rockies' home is known for inflating hitting stats, but Wrigley Field doesn't do such a bad job itself-
Park
Runs
HR
Hits
2B
3B
Coors Field
1.412
1.235
1.240
1.316
1.655
Wrigley Field
1.123
1.329
1.031
1.001
0.913
Except for triples - which isn't a big deal for Burnitz anyway, who only hit 4 last year - his hits will come down a little bit, but his home run total could actually go up from 37 in 2005.
Unfortunately parks don't affect the number of strikeouts, and it won't be a surprise when Burnitz whiffs 100+ times this season. In fact, his numbers overall from last year are eerily similar to Sosa's. But you know what? That's not a bad thing: Sosa had a bad year only compared to the rest of his career. What Hendry managed to do was get rid of the giant squid in the kitchen, sign a guy that would put up comparable numbers to what said giant squid could be expected to produce, get a potential starter in Hairston, and a couple prospects to boot.
Not to say that this was an inexpensive deal- the Cubs will be spending more now than they would if they just kept Sosa, but again, that simply wasn't an option. What they do get is a clean slate, some guys that could do quite well in 2005, and the flexibility to make a deal at the trading deadline if they don't. One could suggest the Cubs should have pursued Magglio or Aubrey Huff more aggresively, but that's bullplop: Maggs is too expensive and too risky if he wants a 5-year deal, and I remain unconvinced that trading for Huff was anything more than daydreaming.
Don't get me wrong- the Cubs still have two question marks in the corners. What they do have is 4 potential answers in Hollandsworth, Dubois, Hairston, and Burnitz and what they don't have is Sammy Sosa to worry about. I'm not thrilled about the situation, but considering the realistic alternatives, I'm satisfied. - posted by Mike J.
@ 1:13 PM |
Tuesday, February 01, 2005
I Can Quit Whenever I Want
By Mike J.
I just choose not to quit right now, that's all. A distressing AP article by Ronald Blum is being picked up all over the country right now, which contains the following sentence:
"To replace some of Sosa's power, the Cubs neared an agreement with free-agent outfielder Jeromy Burnitz on a one-year contract with a mutual option for 2006. That deal wouldn't be finalized until the Sosa trade is completed."
Jeromy f'ing Burnitz. The sheer amount of news and rumors coming out of the Sosa deal the last few days has hamstrung my ability to comment on the options as they come, so I'll turn to Rob Neyer on this one, who briefly considered Burnitz in his outfielder "best buy" argument back in November :
"Burnitz was awful with the Mets in 2002, and then again with the Dodgers during the last two months of 2003, and had to sign with the Rockies to get his mojo back. Now he's free, and prospective suitors will have to decide if Burnitz's .559 slugging percentage was a comeback or simply the Mile High Effect."
Needless to say, he did not select Jeromy for the title of "best buy." And with that, I refuse to read any more rumors. Until I wake up in the morning. - posted by Mike J.
@ 1:02 AM |
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