On Sunday I said that baseball coverage would resume the next day, but it turned out that I was a little off. Monday was the last day of Spring Break and with all the free time in the world, I didn't manage to post. Now that classes have started, however, I expect that finding the time to post will come easier, since its better than the alternative of studying.

Where do the Cubs find themselves only days before the start of the season? Ideally, all question marks would have been straightened into exclamation points by this point, but instead the question marks remain or have turned into shrugging periods. Have the Cubs made any progress? Well, let's review the questions once more:

• Closer? After a ground ball to the wrist, the tentative answer to the closer position is once again LaTroy Hawkins. Hawkins gets a bad rap for someone with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP last year, but then again, blowing 26% of your save opportunities can have that effect. I don't expect him to do so poorly while closing again, but that percentage is so high that even with a moderate reduction his ability to close causes concern. If Ichiro! gets the exclamation point, maybe we should call him "LaTroy?"
  
• Left field. Todd Hollandsworth will split time with someone, and it's not likely to be Jason Dubois, who is still trying to make the 25-man roster. The Daily Herald says that

  "The battle would appear to be one between rookie outfielders Jason Dubois and David Kelton. Dubois has minor-league options while Kelton does not, which means he must clear waivers before the Cubs can outright him to Class AAA Iowa."

  I can see Hollandsworth performing reasonably well in left field, but he's so nondescript that I can't work up any excitement about this at all. I can only wonder how he'll get injured this year. Hopefully they'll make room for Dubois soon.
• Starting Rotation?? A question made even more urgent by its unexpected arrival, this one doesn't have an answer I can give, mainly from lack of information. I don't believe a word the Cubs say about Wood and Prior's health, and I don't think anyone else does either. I'm as frustrated as any fan by the situation, and I can't wait until it's resolved, one way or the other.

The news about Wood and Prior is particularly depressing, but it's really not as bad as it seems. Glendon Rusch, Ryan Dempster, and Sergio Mitre aren't elite level pitchers, but they aren't bad, either. In addition to those three, Angel Guzman can still come up to get some work in, and that makes four decent pitchers available with which the Cubs can shore up their rotation.

Although by the time February comes I'm itching for some baseball, I've decided I hate Spring Training: nothing but bad news comes out of it. Let's play some real baseball.

- posted by Mike J. @ 2:36 PM
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The Illini beat Arizona last night 90-89 in overtime, completing the greatest comeback I've ever seen in college basketball. There are others who have said plenty about the game already, and I would direct you to Big Ten Wonk, where all the action is recapped exhaustively.

I'm still breathless over that game. Back to baseball tomorrow.

- posted by Mike J. @ 6:40 PM
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Now that I don't have finals to worry about anymore, I have all the time in the world to think about baseball.

Well, not right away, anyway. I'm leaving for Las Vegas on Sunday for Spring Break, a vacation that is rife with many distinct possibilities. If television and movies are as factual as I presume, I will do at least one of the following next week:

• Roll twenty-five 7s and 11s in a row at craps, only to bet it all and lose on snake eyes
  
• Hear the "Tilt" guitar riff every time I walk past a poker table
  
• Bet my pants
• Lose my pants (not necessarily by betting them)
• End up with a "Vegas wife"
  
• Steal millions of dollars from the Bellagio with ten other lively characters, then watch the fountains at said casino instead of fleeing the city
  
• Having bet and lost my return plane ticket, take the Greyhound back to Chicago

Although my expectations are high, as long as I keep track of my pants I will consider the trip a success.

Now, if in Las Vegas I am given the opportunity to make foolish bets on the Cubs' season, I'm certain that I'll take advantage of a few. I tend to like the over/under betting style, so in light of recent starting rotation developments in Mesa, Arizona, I'm going to lay out some numbers that I'll likely abide by:

Over/Under on # of starts for...

• Kerry Wood- 22. Wood started 22 games last year with vague arm problems, and the way this season is starting, I'm starting to expect the exact same situation. Its a different injury than his "biceps tendinitis," but frankly, I don't believe a word that comes out of the collective mouth of the Cubs organization when it comes to health reports. He could have leprosy for all I know-- which reminds me, the over/under for number of arms that fall off of Kerry Wood is set at 1.
  
  My bet: Sadly, under. If he's having problems in Spring Training, I don't think he'll make it all season without another arm injury.
  
  
• Mark Prior- 25. Is Prior soft? Is he altering his mechanics in attempt to alleviate pain that's already there, compounding the problem? Man, who the hell knows? He's out indefinitely, but his generally sound mechanics make me more confident that once this inflammation is taken care of, he'll start enough to surpass last year's total. That being said, I don't think there's any way he takes on a full load this year, either.
  
  My bet: Over. Having given up my hopes for Wood to stay healthy, I'll focus my unreasonable optimism on Prior instead.
  
  
• Greg Maddux- 30. The least intimidating man in baseball is the most durable guy on the staff. Not only do I expect him to start just as many games as last year (33), I expect him to win half of them for the 18th time in a row.
  
  My bet: Over. Why would I expect any less? Over his career he's thrown an average of only 92.5 pitches per start. This is one guy that won't let Dusty run him ragged.
  
  
• Carlos Zambrano- 30. The newly proclaimed ace of the rotation now that Wood and Prior are down, Zambrano was a stud last year if only because he avoided injury. However, he "only" started 31 games last season, so going over might be a risky bet.
  
  My bet: Over. If Big Z did get hurt, I'm not sure he'd notice. He's insane. In the membrane, in fact.
  
  
• Glendon Rusch- 30. Two weeks ago, I would have said there's a very small chance that Rusch would start 30 games because of the competition he faced from Ryan Dempster, Sergio Mitre, and possibly Angel Guzman. Now, it seems that he'll start that many out of necessity.
  
  My bet: Over. And it doesn't make me cringe to say it, either.
  
  
• Sergio Mitre and Ryan Dempster- 15 each. If Woody and Prior are missing time, someone is going to have to step in and eat some innings. I don't remember Mitre performing terribly last season in the 9 games that he did start, although the 6.62 ERA and .327 BAA seems to say otherwise. Dempster's command does not impress me, and I don't think he'll impress Dusty and Larry Rothschild much, either.
  
  My bet: For Mitre, over. For Dempster, under. I see both getting starts at the beginning of the season, but when Wood and Prior come back Mitre will both start and provide middle relief, while Dempster's walk totals will keep him playing second fiddle to the sixth fiddle, Mitre.
  
  
• Angel Guzman- 5. I'm not sure The "Gooz" will see much, if any, playing time this year in the big leagues. If he does, I think it will be in the form of a late season call-up to give one of the starters above a break. Don't expect too much from him this year.
  
  My bet: Under. The Cubs apparently don't want to ruin a third arm and are being careful with Guzman. Probably a good decision.
  

Adding up all those numbers and my predictions, my math appears to be a bit fuzzy. This would suggest that I should go back and change one or two predictions, which would undoubtedly be a good idea, considering I might be putting money on this in a few days. An "under" bet, or at least a push, for Prior and Zambrano might make sense.

Oh well. Las Vegas is clearly not about rational decisions. If you have any other foolish bets you think I should take, let me know before I leave on Sunday. Especially if they involve pants.

- posted by Mike J. @ 1:19 PM
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It figures. When I'm trolling news sites and poring over meaningless Spring Training games, there's not an ounce of interesting information. The second I get busy and have to turn in three final papers within 10 days of each other, there's Cub news abound. Of course, none of it is good.

Abandon Ship! Mark Prior's elbow has gone up in flames, causing more than a little panic among Cub fans. To quote my partner, Mike Ryan, "Oh fuck." Carrie Muskat summarizes the situation over at cubs.com, but the gist of it is that Prior will be shut down indefinitely. Throw this news in with Kerry Wood's shoulder bursitis, and suddenly all of those guys competing for the fifth spot might all get a chance to start this season.

So what have I used to calm myself down? Well, Will Carroll addressed the Prior situation in his latest "Under the Knife" column at Baseball Prospectus, saying that

Prior pointed out, smartly, that pitchers at this stage in spring training often have problems, such as a dead arm period, the breaking loose of adhesions or osteophytes, and something one of my favorite major league trainers calls "fatigue-based soreness."

This provides me some comfort, but until I see both Prior and Wood back on the mound the Cubs are in trouble.

Duboys, Dubohs, or Dubwah? However you choose to pronounce it, Jason Dubois is doing all he can this spring to earn the starting job in left field. The sample size is small, but in 18 at-bats Dubois has 7 hits, three of them dingers, for a slugging percentage of .889. The other part of the platoon, Todd Hollandsworth, is doing all right himself, showing that his leg is in good shape by getting 2 triples and a double in the same amount of at-bats. The next couple of weeks will show if either of them can maintain this pace, and if they do the outfield won't look nearly as depressing.

One last thing before I have to get back to work on these papers, and its a question for all of you with fantasy baseball about to begin: who's your #1 pick in a fantasy draft this year and why? I'll weigh in after a few responses accumulate in the comments.

- posted by Mike J. @ 12:07 PM
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According to several news sources, Cardinals' pitcher Rick Ankiel has decided to give up pitching and try to make the team as an outfielder. I really don't even know where to begin with this one. Ankiel has always been an interesting guy to watch seeing as he has amazing stuff and absolutely no control. While it seemed that the Cardinals were still taking it slow with Ankiel they did have some important plans for him. Ankiel was discussed as a possible starter until the return of Matt Morris and was also penciled in as a key part of the St. Louis bullpen. This development will probably hurt the Cardinals slightly as it diminishes their pitching depth. Ankiel leaves an already depleted bullpen with the losses of Kiko Calero and Steve Kline. Without Ankiel, the Cardinals are left with Ray King and Mike Meyers as the potential lefties out of the pen. King is a fine pitcher but Mike Meyers is not. This could also have some ramifications for the Cardinals' starting rotation as Ankiel was a potential replacement for the injured Matt Morris. Either way this will probably hurt the Cardinals' pitching.


Speaking of highly regarded pitching prospects, Angel Guzman made his spring debut yesterday in the Oakland split squad game. Guzman ended up going two innings, and gave up 2 hits, 1 walk while striking out 1. Reportedly, Guzman had some issues with control which is supposed to be his strong point. I wouldn't worry though being that this was his first outing in a long time and I'm sure rust and nerves played a big factor. I am personally a big Guzman fan and would love to see him at Wrigley sometime this year. Although Guzman is probably ready for a shot at the fifth starter right now his recent injury history makes me a little wary. I think I would rather see Guzman start the season in AAA, work on his stamina and stuff and then come up later this year. Guzman has got great stuff and probably should find himself in the rotation or bullpen sometime later this season.


All in all it has been a slow couple of days in terms of news. The spring training games keep coming but without much media coverage and because it is so early it is hard to judge anyone quite yet. Tomorrow Mark Prior will make his first spring start which is bound to attract a great deal of attention. Here's hoping Prior gets off on the right foot.

- posted by Mike R. @ 10:31 AM
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Today is the day I watch my first Cubs game of 2005. Greg Maddux is expected to start, and once and future closer Joe Borowski will take the mound as well. Spring Training games are just tune ups, but I still hope he doesn't suck.

Also in Carrie Muskat's daily smattering of Cubs' news is a quote regarding Neifi Perez's utility man role:

"He can do quite a few things," Baker said of Perez, who is the primary backup shortstop. "He can run, he can bunt, he can play second, third and short. If something does happen to Nomar and -- no slight against [Ramon Martinez] -- but you have a guy who has proven he can play for an extended period of time [in Perez]. The only thing is playing him enough to keep him sharp and in shape if that situation does arise."

I can't help but notice that the ability to hit is excluded from Neifi's list of talents. A little later we find the most baffling sentence Muskat has ever written, a phrase that made my hair stand on end as if I were a frightened cat:
I think she's referring to Neifi's vision of a perfect world, but there's some stuff you just shouldn't write.

- posted by Mike J. @ 12:12 PM
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Just a link today, regarding Sammy Sosa's baffling ejection in the Orioles-Nationals game Saturday. Maybe the umpires were Cub fans.

- posted by Mike J. @ 11:56 AM
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After what has seemed like an eternity, real live baseball has returned. The Cubs won their spring opener 2-1 against Oakland yesterday and man did it feel good to hear something actually happening. I love the hot stove offseason as much as the next guy, but it sure is a great feeling when the games finally start and you can take stock of your team on the field instead of on paper. While I'm not sold on the idea of spring training as a means to judge roster spots on account of the small sample size and the drastic disparity in effort, I do love to see the team get out there and knock off the rust.

Despite all the excitement for actual baseball, the game itself turned out to be quite a dud. It is nice to see Aramis Ramirez get off to a nice start and from what I heard on the radio Carlos Zambrano looked pretty good on the mound. It is also good to hear that Nomar is apparently ok after what looked to be a pretty nasty HBP right on the wrist. The last thing this team needs is for a key position player to go down in the first spring game.

One interesting side note from yesterday was a slightly worrisome article about the status of Mark Prior. The article explained that the Cubs were going to be extra careful with Prior, holding him out of the actual games until sometime later next week. The explanation given was that the staff was worried about Prior getting caught in a longer than needed inning and getting his mechanics messed up as a result. The plan it seems st to build up his arm strength so that something like a thirty pitch inning would not be detrimental.

While I don't think that any thing is wrong with Prior I will be holding my breath until I see him take the mound for an actual game. If I remember correctly, the demise of Mark Prior last spring training began with little side articles like this one, so excuse me if I am a bit paranoid right now. With the status of the bullpen the way it is, the Cubs can ill afford to have a starter go down with injury. At this point 2/3 of the potential candidates for the fifth starter position are also talked about as key pieces of the bullpen. If any of the starters go down someone from the pen is going to get pressed into duty and the bullpen will suffer.

All in all, it is good to have baseball back again. Kerry Wood is scheduled to get the "start" today followed by a slew of pitchers. At this point I have not heard who else will be seeing any action today so I guess I will just wait and check out the boxscore.

- posted by Mike R. @ 9:12 AM
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Happily, there's no news to report from Mesa, Arizona again today. There are little tidbits that say Nomar is looking healthy, Jerry Hairston is playing well, and Borowski's velocity is up, but those are things we expect rather than are surprised by.

Carrie Muskat casually drops an interesting sentence into the article, saying that "Cubs manager Dusty Baker has listed LaTroy Hawkins and Borowski as closer candidates." What if Hawkins has no interest in the role, as he's come out and said in the past? When asked about if he wants the position (here comes the quote of the day), he responded,

"Want to? It's one of those things where hey, yeah, I would want to. But Joe's
healthy, so fine. That's perfect. I play catch with him every day and I think
he's healthy."

If it were up to Hawkins, Borowski would have the job already. Here's hoping JoBo gets better and better as Spring Training continues.

The pitcher that Baker glaringly didn't mention for the closer role is, of course, Ryan Dempster. Does that mean Dempster is no longer being considered? It would appear that he's now fighting for the 5th starting spot with Glendon Rusch, and the loser goes to the bullpen for a middle relief/6th starter role.

Rusch performed so well in the 6th starter role that I still don't see why Dusty is saying there's even a question who will be the 5th starter. However, since he's "competing" with Rusch, let's compare a couple of numbers found at baseball-reference.com to better understand his chances.

B-R calculates 162 game averages based on a player's career, which I think leads to a reasonable idea of what to expect in 2005. Since pitchers don't pitch 162 games in a season, they change the formula a little bit, but it basically works the same (click here for a better explanation). So, here are the 162-game averages for Rusch and Dempster in a couple of key statistics:

Pitcher	IP	ER	Hits	BB	SO
Dempster	196.7	109	204	103	159
Rusch	193.7	106	223	57	141

There are a couple of things to consider. One, Dempster hasn't had a full season to show off his stuffsince his Tommy John surgery in late 2003. Two, Glendon Rusch is coming off a career year. Both are capable of performing much better than their averages show. That being said, these averages are still being culled from 6 years of experience in the majors for both pitchers: we probably can't expect that much better.

Still, with all those caveats, Glendon Rusch is the better pitcher. He walks almost half the batters Dempster does and isn't recovering from arm surgery. The two give up about the same amount of hits and it wouldn't surprise me if Dempster's walks started catching up with him. And, like I've said before, I'd rather have a lefty thrown into the Cubs' rotation than another righthander at this point.

I really hope Dempster is great for the Cubs this season. I hope that he'll do well whatever position he finds himself in and improves his control. However, I don't have wild expectations for him, either. If he does end up beating Rusch out for the 5th slot, then the Cubs will be in a great position with their bullpen for 2005.

- posted by Mike J. @ 1:03 PM
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With a near-complete lack of news (which also means no injuries), I have only this to offer: a link to the broadcasting schedule for Spring Training games. Not much is available if you're not in the Chicagoland area, but if you are, rejoice: WGN Radio will broadcast the first game of the year on Thursday, March 3rd.

- posted by Mike J. @ 5:53 PM
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