• Houston is next to last in the NL in runs scored with 75. Only Pittsburgh is worse. The Cubs, however, are second with 111. Similarly, the Cubs have 28 home runs (1st in the NL), and the Astros only have 12.
• The Astros' ERA is almost a point lower than the Cubs, registering 3.46 to the Cubs' 4.36.
• Roger Clemens' ERA is a league-best 0.32. I think he's going to pitch until he's 45.
  
• The Astros' best hitter, by way of OPS, is Jason Lane, followed by Craig Biggio and then Morgan Ensberg. The Cubs' best hitter, who does not need to be referred to by name, is also the NL's best hitter at the moment.

- posted by Mike J. @ 3:14 PM
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Year G    AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA    OBP   SLG
1969 163  642  103  188  33 10  21   95   3  2  59  70  .293  .355  .474
1970 161  636  137  205  34  4  42  129   7  1  72  65  .322  .391  .586

Year G    AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA    OBP   SLG
2004 161  605   90  168  39  1  32   98  12  5  68 128  .278  .356  .504

- posted by Mike J. @ 1:16 PM
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- posted by Mike J. @ 10:32 AM
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• Kerry Wood feeling better.
• Nomar opting for a cleanup surgery.
• Prior rox.
• Inexplicably, so does Neifi.
• Adam Dunn's ineffective 3-run dinger justified my anxiety.
• Chad Fox is injured already.
• Way to let him languish on the mound, Dusty.
• Back to Hawkins, I guess.
• Neifi F'ing Perez.
• Who knew?
• The Cubs now remind me of the Replacements.
• Neifi, of course, is Keanu.
  

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:07 AM
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• Something about yesterday's lineup caught my eye:
  
  J. Hairston Jr., 2B
  N. Perez, SS
  D. Lee, 1B
  A. Ramirez, 3B
  J. Dubois, LF
  J. Burnitz, RF
  M. Barrett, C
  R. Cedeno, SS
  K. Wood, P
  
  No, it wasn't the number of scrubs that peppered the list. Rather, it was that only one normal starter, Corey Patterson, was missing. Swap him for recent call-up Ronny Cedeno, and there's your 2005 Chicago Cubs. Makes you feel good inside, huh?
• Hawkins' days as a closer are over, as Chad Fox earned the save without producing much anxiety. Len Kasper talked in detail about Bill James' closer-by-committee method that he developed in Boston in the 2003 season, but didn't mention that the committee didn't work so well. I doubt it's effectiveness for the Cubs because it means Dusty will have to consider splits and whatnot for his relievers, so hopefully Joe Borowski will get back soon.
• I glazed over Wood's shoulder problem above, but I want to give it fuller treatment here: I'm really worried that Wood will never put together a full season again. He said he was fine after the game yesterday, but whether or not he actually is, his shoulder is still bothering him. Some part of his mechanics will need to change to limit his injuries, but changing those mechanics could also render him ineffective. This comment is a little too doomsday-ish for me and I don't want to believe it, but the possibility is haunting.

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:37 AM
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- posted by Mike J. @ 1:21 PM
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- posted by Mike J. @ 12:51 PM
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• If there's somehow a shortage of good outfielders in your league, consider Astros' OF Jason Lane. He's killing the ball right - 4 HR, .726 SLG - and swiping bags in the process (5). Lance Berkman will be coming back to claim his spot in the near future, but given what this guy has done so far he's probably a safe bet to stay in the lineup.
• Minnesota Twin Torii Hunter started slow but his production has escalated not only at the plate (4 HR's, .532 SLG, 15 RBI) but on the basepaths. He leads the league in stolen bases with 9 so far, which is almost half of his total from last year (21) already. He's not the biggest OF hitter, but that kind of speed makes up for it.
• If you had Marlin Juan Encarnación on your team thus far, you're probably quite pleased. 2 grand slams so far this year have pushed his perceived value up, so now would be a good time to trade him.
  
• D-Backs closer Brandon Lyon already has 6 saves this season and is a good pickup if you're lacking in that category. His other numbers so far are good (1.04 ERA, 7 SO, 1 BB) but if you're expecting him to contribute anywhere else besides saves down the road, you're probably expecting too much.
  
• Brett Myers hasn't looked more than average in his young career, at least until this season. In 3 games started he's struck out 2o, walked 2, and posted a 0.44 ERA. He'll regress soon enough, but a great start here and there could make him worth a spot in your bullpen. Watch out for home runs, though: Citizens Bank Park plays as a hitters and home run haven and he gave up 31 last year.
  

- posted by Mike J. @ 11:00 AM
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- posted by Mike J. @ 11:56 AM
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1. It's an old rivalry. The Brewers are closer to Chicago than St. Louis, but they just joined the NL in 1998. St. Louis has Kansas City nearby, but they're in the AL. The Cubs and Cardinals have been around since the 19th century. They've played over 2,000 games against one another. It's tradition to despise one another. Plus, Chicago used to pick on St. Louis when they were both growing up.
2. It's not the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry. I'll admit that I take interest when these two teams play one another: the rivalry is on the level of the Cubs/Cards. However, ESPN does not hype the Cubs/Cards game with crappy songs and commercials played ad nauseum, a fact that many non-Yanks/Sox fans can appreciate.
   
3. Geographical ramifications. Springfield, IL is located right on top of the fault line for the Cubs and Cardinals fan base: walk into a bar and you're as likely to see a redbird neon sign as much as a Cubbie logo on the wall. Some of my friends back home are Cub fans, some are Cardinals fans. Some of my relatives, Cub fans, others, Cards fans. I am technically closer to St. Louis than Chicago when I go home, and when things aren't going well for the Cubs, the lure of the Dark Side becomes stronger for those right along the border. People become passionate: a win for either side is like landing an uppercut in a prize fight.
   
4. Apartmental ramifications. My roommate, the sorry soul, is a Cardinals fan. We get along fine when the Cubs and Cards aren't playing one another, but on game day all bets are off. We both know it's coming and understand that coming to blows could happen: it's inevitable as red and blue robots trying to knock each other's block off.
5. My hatred for Cardinals players. With the exception of Julian Tavarez, whom I believe to be insane, I'm sure all the Cardinal players and staff are fine people in the real world. But I hate 'em. Every single one. Especially Albert Pujols. How can I possibly dislike one of the greatest hitters the game has seen? He plays in St. Louis. To a non-baseball fan that might seem absurd, but a baseball fan, it's the best reason you can give.
6. Cub hatred for Cardinal players. Last year Carlos Zambrano and Jim Edmonds had a bit of an altercation. With Zambrano being nearly as insane as Tavarez, the benches cleared in preparation for fisticuffs as he yelled at Edmonds for admiring his home run. I love it.
7. The Sosa/McGwire love fest is over. Yeah, yeah. The home run race saved baseball, Sosa and McGwire became friends, etc., etc. They were driven by the pursuit of personal glory down that happy stretch of baseball, but imagine if they only wanted to hit more than the other. It would have been fantastic: nothing fuels rage and competition like steroids! Now that the home run record chase is in the past, Cubs and Cards fans can freely hate one another again.
8. It's not one-sided anymore. The Yanks/Sox rivalry is so heated because they're both perennial contenders and until last year. The same could not be said for the Cubs/Cards. Now that the Cubs have a solid team and are coming off back-to-back winning seasons, they can truly compete with the Cardinals.
   
9. Cub pitchers vs. Cardinal batters. Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Maddux. Walker, Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds. There's premiere talent on both teams in pitching and hitting, but the Cubs really shine on the mound and the Cards at the plate. 10+ colossal matchups every game: every baseball fan can appreciate it.
10. It's going to be great baseball. The games are being broadcast on ESPN and ESPN2 in addition to local markets because everyone is expecting fireworks. Teams are still stretching out and making sure all the parts work in April, but players on both sides will leave it all on the field for these games. Whether pitching duels or home run contests are in store, we're going to see some inspired baseball today, tomorrow, and every other time they meet.
    

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:23 AM
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• Resignation. Bags loaded, no outs. We've seen this type of collapse before, and there's very little the next reliever can do except minimize damage.
• Disbelief. Uh, Dusty? Where's the next reliever? You do realize Jonny Boy is one pitch away from sealing the deal for the Reds, right?
  
• Shock. What? A grounder to third base? A double play! It worked out! No thanks to Dusty anyw...Barrett! Why are you throwing to third! It's in left field! They're trotting home! AGH!
• Confusion. Wait, didn't Adam Dunn, the man just forced out at third score that run? So it's still 5-5, right? Where the hell is the next reliever?
• Simmering rage. Oh. Look. A bases-clearing double given up by Jon Leicester. Who would have thought he would groove one across the plate after walking two and hitting another?

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:41 AM
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• Game 1- The Reds will send Matt Belisle to the mound in place of Ramon Ortiz, who landed on the 15-day DL with a strained groin. Belisle has very little major league experience (16.1 innings in his career) but did pretty well against the Cardinals, throwing 5 innings and giving up 1 earned run to get the win. That he's in the starting rotation by virtue of injury to another Reds player means that he's not hot stuff yet, but he's shown that he's capable already this year.
  
  Opposite Belisle is Kerry Wood. Predicting his performance right now is like flipping a coin, so I did that, and it came up heads. Therefore, a good outing from Woody is coming today. So speaketh the coin.
  
  
• Game 2- Brandon Claussen started 14 games for the Reds last year, posting a not-so-impressive 6.14 ERA in the process. His 45/35 strikeout/walk ratio highlights control problems that are likely the source of the bad ERA. As such, he hasn't made a start yet this year. He might turn a corner, but it seems unlikely that it will come in this game or even be a very big turn. More of a gradual veer in the right direction is likely, but that'll still take him off the road.
  
  Golden Boy Prior starts for the Cubs, who hopes to build on the 6 scoreless innings in his first start. He looked very much in command in his first start and while a few runs could come in and cost him a win, a bad outing seems unlikely.

• The Reds- Joe "Who?" Randa is leading the Reds in all the big offensive categories (home runs, RBI, runs scored, etc.), so watch to see if he extends this hot streak. Adam Dunn and Sean Casey are normally the two big hitters in this lineup and could cause some damage, especially if Wood hangs his breaking pitches. Wily Mo Pena is also off to a good start with 3 home runs and a .348 AVG/OBP.
  
  
• The Cubs- Dare I say it? Yes, watch Neifi Perez this series. This dude is batting .417 in 24 at-bats this season with a home run and only 1 strikeout. Besides Neifi, Derrek Lee should continue his productive ways against considerably weaker starting pitching than the Cubs have seen all year. The Reds pitchers might be a good place to get on track for Aramis Ramirez and especially Nomar Garciaparra, who just hasn't looked good yet this season.

- posted by Mike J. @ 12:56 PM
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- posted by Mike R. @ 9:13 AM
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• Let's compare lineups for games 1 and 2 quickly. Game 1-
  
  C. Patterson, CF
  N. Perez, 2B
  N. Garciaparra, SS
  A. Ramirez, 3B
  J. Burnitz, RF
  D. Lee, 1B
  T. Hollandsworth, LF
  M. Barrett, C
  K. Wood, P
  
  Neifi's presence interrupts the normal lineup, but still potent. Game 2-
  
  J. Hairston Jr., 2B
  N. Perez, SS
  C. Patterson, CF
  D. Lee, 1B
  J. Burnitz, RF
  J. Dubois, LF
  J. Macias, 3B
  H. Blanco, C
  M. Prior, P
  
  Hairy, Dooby, Macias, and Blanco take the place of Nomar, Hollandsworth, Ramirez, and Barrett, effectively removing a lot of power from the lineup. Yet lineup two scored 8 while lineup one barely scored three. Jake Peavy probably had a good amount to do with that, but Nomar hasn't started hitting yet and Ramirez, well, doesn't look like last year's Ramirez right now.
  
  That's not to say Derrek Lee didn't do a lot of the heavy lifting in game 2: his 5 RBI were enough to seal the deal, but they tacked on another 3 just in case.


• Lee had a great second game, but who had the best day? Yep, it was Neifi. 6 for 9 in two games and 3 runs scored. He might not have power, but the guy can bunt for a hit at least.
  
  
• Mark Prior, we love you. Your 6 scoreless innings didn't come by luck, but rather spot on control. Those 2 hits you got helped too, but next time you run to third on a sac bunt, leg it out a bit, won't you? Your stroll to third in the second inning didn't end in an out only because the third baseman wasn't on the bag.
  
  
• Kerry Wood, we love you too, just not as much right now. At least you went seven innings and saved the bullpen from getting too much work. Cut out the first inning and you did all right yesterday.
  
  
• That ad board behind home plate is like a launcing pad for wild pitches. Once it slipped past the San Diego catcher it bonked against the bottom corner so hard that Corey moved from first to third with ease. Note to Cub pitchers: if you throw wild, try and miss the ad board at least.
  
  
• Corey Patterson has a 9-game hitting streak.
  
  
• I caught Len Kasper quoting the Bill James Handbook in game 2 when he said that Brian Lawrence has the slowest average fastball speed in the majors at 83.2 mph. I'm not terribly impressed with the new broadcasting duo so far, but that's a step in the right direction at least.

- posted by Mike J. @ 10:05 AM
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• During the first 8 games of the season it's been revealed that Pat Burrell is a god among baseball players. 4 home runs, 17 RBI, and 14 hits for a AVG/OBP/SLG line of .424/.447/.879. He'll slow down soon, no doubt, but right now he's definitely having the Best Week Ever.
  
• The league I'm in is head-to-head, so stats are reset each week and they begin counting all over again, and this tends to make especially good or bad performances look even better or worse than they ought to. Armando Benitez wins the worst pitching appearance of the week award, and it's only Wednesday. His 3 ER in .2 innings were not only good for a blown save, but that equals a 40.50 ERA. Ouch.
• Next year I'm drafting the Marlins' starting rotation. Dontrelle Willis, A.J. Burnett, and Josh Beckett all have a complete game under their belt before the end of week 2. If anything, they're showing the Marlins deserve a lot more respect than they're getting: the Braves have John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, but how many complete games do they have so far? For that matter, how many wins?
  

- posted by Mike J. @ 8:55 AM
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- posted by Mike J. @ 10:43 AM
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- posted by Mike J. @ 12:04 PM
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PLAYER             YEAR TEAM         HR  SB
Jose Canseco       1988 A's          42  40
Barry Bonds        1996 Giants       42  40
Alex Rodriguez     1998 Mariners     42  46

- posted by Mike J. @ 12:18 AM
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• As a switch hitter, he can bat lefthanded against righties. Neifi's career average is actually slightly worse against righties at .267. This also implies that the other righthanded pinch hitters would be worse against the reliever than Neifi. While he is better than Jerry Hairston against righties (he's batted .255 career against them), it's suspect that Jason Dubois, a much better hitter than defensive replacement Neifi suffers terribly when facing righties. This is hard to prove because he hasn't been in the majors very long, but I'm still inclined to believe Dubois is the better hitter.
• The more experienced pinch hitter should pinch hit. Also reasonable, but Neifi was with the Cubs for only 23 games last year. He's been around since 1996, which is a lot more experience than Dubois, but this fact negates his hot streak in 2004, where he batted .371 for the Cubs. Just because he's experienced does not mean he's the go-to guy: with such a thin bench to start with, Dubois becomes a much more viable option.

- posted by Mike J. @ 12:46 AM
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• Except for a few swings, Corey Patterson looked awfully good. I expected more of the Corey that swung at a chest-high pitch for a strikeout than the Corey that walked and singled three times. There were a few times during the good at-bats where he swung at a terrible pitch, but he managed to regroup nicely and smack the ball into the outfield.
• Yesterday I said Derrek Lee would likely be a non-factor because he starts off slowly. Well, two doubles, a single, and a 3-run shot later, I'm reconsidering. In the past he's said that he loves hot weather, and when there's a gametime temperature of 80, it looks like Lee is ready to rock. He won't keep this pace up - none of the Cubs will - but coupled with the leather he flashed at first, it was still the most impressive performance of the day
• Jeromy Burnitz singled 3 times and struck out 3 times. And I'm OK with that.
  
• For a guy that looked especially calm for most of the time he was on the mound, Carlos Zambrano sure blew up quickly after Dusty took him out in the 5th, getting ejected for mouthing off to the umpire about the strike zone. I'm sure I'd be mad about not being able to get through five innings, but come on Z, keep it together. That is, unless you want to get ejected from every game this year.
  
  Zambrano didn't look all that great today, although in fairness the strike zone seemed to shrink and expand quite often. That's the thing about run support, though: you can have an off day and still come out with a win, although it didn't end up being Zambrano's. That's another thing that bothers me about the 5 inning rule: Glendon Rusch earned the win the moment he struck out the last batter in the fifth, and Zambrano gets nothing. It's just another reason wins are a pretty lousy stat that has way too much to do with Cy Young voting.

- posted by Mike J. @ 11:30 AM
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"The Cubs kept Ramirez to an average annual salary of under $11 million per year, while Ramirez got an out clause that allows him to leave after the 2006 season if he feels he's not receiving his market value.

While the out clause was a major factor in getting the deal done before the final deadline, Ramirez said: "I don't think I will exercise that. I want to be a Cub the rest of my life."

1. With Garret Anderson, Steve Finley, and Vladimir Guerrero grazing the pasture, they've got the best outfield in baseball. Finley may not be the best center fielder in the game, but he's got a good bat and Anderson will likely put up numbers similar to his 2003 campaign if he manages to stay healthy for all of 2005.
2. Francisco Rodriguez and Scot Shields are anchoring the bullpen. Rodriguez, the new closer for the Angels, recorded a 1.82 ERA last year to go along with his ridiculous 13.18 K/9 innings ratio, and Scot Shields will find success as the set up man. He threw for a 3.33 ERA and a 9.31 K/9 ratio in 105 innings last year and will likely see a similar workload, if not increased, this year. Don't forget Brendan Donnelly, who only pitched 42 innings last year but had a 3.00 ERA and a 12.00 K/9 ratio.
3. The Angels have a strong defensive infield. Orlando Cabrera, while not the greatest hitter, plugs up the left side of second with his strong defensive presence and Darin Erstad has the 2004 Gold Glove along with 2 others notched on his belt. The rest of the infield ain't bad either, but Cabrera's presence will really help out the starting pitching, which isn't Anaheim's strongest point.

Central- Minnesota Twins. Lack of competition isn't going to be the biggest reason they win the division this year. Rather, the presence of Johan Santana, Brad Radke, and Joe Nathan make the pitching something to be feared and Joe Mauer's potential to be a big bat in a relatively low-octane lineup give the Twins a chance to be better than last year, where they were already pretty darn good. Peter Gammons at ESPN.com picked them to win the World Series--I don't know if I'd go that far, but it's not as farfetched of an idea than I would have thought in previous years.

East- Boston Red Sox. Some of the authors from Baseball Prospectus were at a Barnes and Noble for a book signing a few weeks ago, and one of them predicted that the Yankees would not make the playoffs this year because their defense is nothing to be proud of and their pitching, while expensive, isn't as good as advertised. While I don't necessarily agree with that statement - I still think they could address any problems they have by the trading deadline - I think Boston has the potential to be the stronger team in the East this year. The lineup that led the league in team OBP last year returns mostly intact, if not upgraded with Edgar Renteria, and while Pedro Martinez is a Met now, David Wells and Matt "Brillo Pad" Clement can be very good. If Wade Miller makes a comeback, they'll be in even better shape.

Wild Card- New York Yankees. I think they'll find that their defense and pitching isn't the best $200 million can buy, but their offensive capabilities will disguise these shortcomings enough that they'll still make the playoffs as the Wild Card. In any other division they'd win, but having to compete with Boston, they'll need to find another way into the playoffs this time around.

AL Pennant- Anaheim Angels. Predicting the playoffs at the beginning of the season is damn near impossible, so why not say the Angels? I do like Boston's chances, but even though they won last year, I just can't believe they'd turn 86 years of nothing into 2 straight years of dominance. Silly, I know, but some crazy sequence of events involving Mr. Guerrero in the playoffs will keep them out of the World Series.

MVP- Vladimir Guerrero. He's really, really good.

Cy Young- Randy Johnson. John Kruk predicted 30 wins for the Big Unit: that's absurd, but I feel like 20 is a given.

The National League

West- Los Angeles Dodgers. Looking at the Dodgers' home page on ESPN.com, I came across this maddening game result: "Los Angeles 6, Los Angeles 4." Who won, the Dodgers or the Angels? No one knows! Anyway, in a division where the Giants were favorites to win before the media, I mean knee surgery, took down Barry Bonds for an indefinite period of time, I find myself unconvinced that the Giants or the Padres can end up in first place.

The Dodgers managed to win last year on the strength of their defense and the advantage of playing in a pitcher's park for half of their games, and the majority of their defense is back, plus a bigger bat in J.D. Drew. Drew still has to stay healthy, but I think he'll still play at least 120 games. I also am giving GM Paul DePodesta a free pass on the Derek Lowe contract: this man is smarter than me, and if he thinks that Lowe's extreme groundball-flyball ratio (3.34 career) will translate well in a new park, I'm willing to believe him until proven otherwise.

Central- St. Louis Cardinals. It kills me to say it, but I'm going to fight the homer in me with reason for at least a while. The Cardinals downgraded at shortstop - David Eckstein, no matter how gritty, will disappoint - and lost Steve Kline, Danny Haren, and Kiko Calero out of the bullpen. They signed Mark Mulder, however, giving them an ace so long as he's as healthy as he claims, and you simply cannot deny the power of Larry Walker, Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, and Jim Edmonds. Any team would want any one of those bats in their lineup, and they have all four. Not only are they monsters at the plate, they're damn good defensively, too. The division this year is top-heavy, and with the only true contenders licking their wounds on the North Side of Chicago, its hard to pick against the Redbirds.

East- Atlanta Braves. At this point, they've earned the right to be favorites coming into the season. It's questionable whether John Smoltz will be able to handle the workload of a starting pitcher again, and some people don't think Dan Kolb will repeat last season's closer performance. What if both don't perform as expected? Well, Smoltz goes back to the bullpen, Kolb sets him up. and suddenly MLB announces that if the Braves have the lead after 7 innings, they win automatically. There's also Tim Hudson, who is my favorite to have the best season out of the former Big Three: he's going to devour NL lineups and there's no hip injury hovering over his head.

They did lose J.D. Drew to free agency, but the lineup should be able to provide enough offense for their starting pitching. It ain't the 1990s anymore, but there's enough there that I've got to give Bobby Cox the benefit of the doubt again this year.

Wild Card- Chicago Cubs. After a rocky, unhealthy start to the season, Wood and Prior stay healthy down the stretch, becoming their normal dominant selves (which still isn't as good as the monster season Carlos Zambrano will have). The offense falls into place when Jim Hendry picks up an outfielder at the trade deadline and Nomar bats .330 for the season. Expect some strong competition from the Florida Marlins for this final playoff spot, but I've held the homer in me back too long- wild card for the Cubbies.

NL Pennant- St. Louis Cardinals. Unlike the Red Sox, I can easily see a repeat performance for 2005 if only because the baseball gods want to spite me. Also, this way I'll be pleasantly surprised (and hysterical) if the Cubs pulled it off. For now, there's too many question marks to reasonably predict the Cubbies to win, though.

NL MVP- Albert Pujols. Barry Bonds is out for at least a while, and as my buddy Bob has fondly pointed out to me many times, Pujols did not strike out in Spring Training. At all. Chalk up another one to heavenly spite.

Cy Young- Carlos Zambrano. A Cub pitcher with a clean bill of health despite the insane workload, things will fall right for the Big Z in 2005. Prior will finish third in the voting behind Jake Peavy.

World Series- Angels in 6. In baseball, the playoffs are structured so that it ends up being a complete crap shoot more often than not. Because I can't pick the Cardinals to win, I'll pick the Angels. Why 6 games? I dunno, 6 is a good number.

- posted by Mike J. @ 1:41 PM
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"Ramirez is seeking at least a four-year deal worth $10 million to $13 million a season. He would make $8.95 million under his one-year deal and be a free agent after the 2005 season."

- posted by Mike J. @ 10:10 AM
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