Dear Old Style fans, Cub fans, and Old Style Cubs fans,

I've arrived safely in Madison, Wisconsin, but unfortunately, I won't have my internet access set up until the 18th of August. This means I'll have to rely on the patience of the Panera staff to be online for any extended period of time, which will probably lead to a lack of time to do updates.

I'll try to weigh in on topics here and there for the next few weeks, but it will probably be a while before I can return to a normal schedule.

Love,
Mike Jansen

- posted by Mike J. @ 5:16 PM
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Not the website, but myself. I'll be spending the weekend relocating to Madison, Wisconsin and starting a job on Monday, which means I'll be quite a bit farther from Wrigley Field and probably catch fewer games on TV. I'll try and get myself back to the blog on Monday, but that will also depend on if I have internet access.

Hopefully, by the time I've returned the Cubs will have won another series and be in a good position to make a run at the Wild Card. Go Cubbies!

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:51 AM
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Keeping this short today for two reasons: I didn't watch all of last night's game that started 3 hours late, and I burned my thumb with bacon grease.

What I will mention is, of course, that Maddux got his 3,000th strikeout in this morning's loss and Matt Clement got more than he bargained for, getting hit right behind the ear with a line drive last night. It sounds like he's OK, though, which is great because it looked a lot worse than it actually was.

Since my thumb is yelling at me, that's all I've got. Game starts at 1:20pm today with Zambrano on the mound...let's go Cubbies!

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:27 AM
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7 innings into last night's game, I had tossed aside any notion of momentum as the Cubs trailed 2-1 to the Giants. As they loaded the bases in the 8th for the second time, Neifi Perez--or as I called him yesterday, Neifi "This won't happen again for a long time" Perez--made me look silly as he smacked a single to tie the game. A great hit to keep this Cubs in the game until the 9th, where the real magic happened.

With the bases loaded and one out, Jeromy Burnitz came to the plate as the infield moved in and the outfield played shallow. Burnitz hit a soft liner to center field that was just deep enough to cause Jason Ellison to backpedal before catching. As Cedeno tagged, Ellison crow-hopped and fired toward the plate. As both ball and runner arrive, Cedeno swooped and gracefully extended his hand over the blocking leg of Mike Matheny in a near-caress of home plate to score and win the game. It was Exhibit A in the case for expanding the definition of the stolen base.

There was, however, more to the game than the last play at the plate. Rich Hill pitched well in his first major league start, giving up 2 ER and striking out 5 in 5 innings as Remlinger, Mitre, and Dempster combined to throw 4 scoreless to finish the game. Despite his baserunning (dis)ability, Hill gave enough reason to keep him around for the next missed Wood start, and I hope he gets the chance 5 games from now.

Hill, in fact, might be making a case for 5th starter for the rest of the year. Wood might go to the bullpen after he returns from the DL, the thinking being that it's less stressful to pitch one or two innings at a time. If Wood is healthy enough to pitch, I'm not worried what role he assumes. Moving to the bullpen isn't some magical cure for his shoulder, though: he's going to keep hurting, but this way it might not be as much.

Maddux and Noah Lowry tonight as the Cubs go for 4 in a row. Let's go Cubbies!

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:03 AM
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A bit before I head to bed: when/if Kerry Wood comes back from the DL, he could head straight to the bullpen.

- posted by Mike J. @ 11:44 PM
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Part of me wants to spend today celebrating last night's victory, but there are a few reasons not to do just that:

1. It wouldn't take very long: all I would do is give instructions for celebrating. "Dance/shake your butt while singing 'We beat the Cardinals, we beat the Cardinals' in taunting fashion." And yes, it's OK to use "we" here. I, at least, am too invested not to use the pronoun.
   
   
2. It's just one series. The Cubs didn't win the playoffs here, nor did they secure a spot to reach them. They remain 4.5 games out of the Wild Card spot in 5th place, and while every win helps, none is worth more than the other.
   
   
3. It wouldn't do justice to the great baseball witnessed this weekend. 9 innings each from Carpenter and Zambrano and a suicide squeeze to win in the bottom of the 11th in game one. Down by one, Pujols hits a searing line drive with 2 on and 1 out in the 9th, only to be caught by a perfectly (and luckily) positioned Neifi, who doubles off Abraham Nunez at second to end game two. Prior gives up 3 first inning home runs, but the Cubs fight tooth and nail to get the lead, only to see Dempster blow his first save since his first appearance as closer before king of the hour Neifi Perez lines a granny to right in game 3.
   
   Cardinals fans would agree that this was great baseball: the Cubs were the last ones standing, that's all.

Instead of celebrating, then, I'll point out a couple of things from last night's game before moving on to today's:

• Last night Derrek Lee was 0-1 with 4 walks. LaRussa, understandably, was trying not to get beat by Lee, but pitching around him led to Lee scoring 2 runs. Making other Cubs do the dirty work is a pretty good strategy, but this time it backfired.
  
  
• After this series, I have to respect David Eckstein. In two late inning situations he hunkered down and did exactly what he needed to do, laying down the suicide squeeze in one game and poking a grounder through the right side last night to score the tying run. I've never seen him walk or jog anywhere, and watching someone play so hard makes it easy to understand why Pete Rose was so loved. It also makes it easy to understand why seeing Ramirez stroll to first base on a hit to the outfield gets me so mad.
  
  
• Ramirez homered, but a bulk of the offense came courtesy of Four-Hit Henry Blanco and Neifi "This won't happen again for a long time" Perez. Playoff teams rely on everyone to pick up the slack now and then, and for one series the Cubs looked like one.

Tonight is when Kerry Wood should have started, but he's still not ready to go after his cortisone shot. Does he need surgery? Yes, but not during the season:

"If we continue our throwing program and things don't progress the way where we can get him to the level where he needs to be to compete, then obviously we've got to look into it more seriously," [trainer Mark] O'Neal said. "Right now, we're not thinking about that."

In his stead, Rich Hill will get the start as the Cubs face the Giants at home. The Giants aren't a very good team this year and tonight's pitcher Jason Schmidt hasn't been as good as usual lately, but I'm not taking anything for granted. The Cubs should have all the momentum they need heading into this game, though, which makes me wish it were 7pm already. What am I gonna do 'til then?

"We beat the Cardinals, we beat the Cardinals..."

- posted by Mike J. @ 8:59 AM
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They might be up by 12 games, but at least for tonight it doesn't matter. Take that, Cardinal bitches!

- posted by Mike J. @ 11:47 PM
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Yesterday the Cubs imploded like an aging Las Vegas hotel, giving up 5 runs in the 8th via balks, walks, and poor defense to lose 9-6 to the Reds.

There are, in fact, better ways to mentally prepare oneself for a series in St. Louis. Since we can't pick and choose, though, we'll have to go with the "Wow, yesterday was so bad we can't possibly do worse" mindset.

I've got nothing else to say about yesterday's game and I've said all I need to about why I love watching the Cubs play the Cardinals (bitches), so allow me to jump around a bit:

• Kerry Wood is getting a cortisone shot for his shoulder and is only scheduled to miss one start. I'll believe it when I see it.
  
  
• Another injured pitcher, Livan Hernandez of the Nationals, was in quite a bit of pain Wednesday and threatened that he'd have surgery to fix his knee that would end his season. He's calmed down a bit since then and expects to stay in the rotation. I knew Hernandez was a tough dude that eats innings, but I didn't know he had this sort of crazy in him. This could be Zambrano in a few years.
  
  
• The Nationals, by the way, are in the midst of a very bad streak. They're 2-8 in their last 10 and are now tied for first in the NL East with a 54-42 record. Their runs scored to runs allowed has stayed pretty much the same since they were hot stuff (382-388), but things just aren't going their way anymore. They've still got a great record and a chance to contend, but I don't see things getting much better just because Preston Wilson is around.
  
  
• This means, of course, that the Cubs will likely be chasing the Nationals instead of the Braves for the Wild Card. How the Braves have stayed good--no, great--despite not having most of the players that made them winners in the 90s and being on the wrong end of the Dan Kolb trade, is the sort of thing that keeps me up at night. They've had 14 rookies join the major league club at some point this season, and they're 12 above .500.
  
  
• I'm glad Jim Hendry didn't pull the trigger on a trade for Kolb last offseason, or for Troy Percival, who hasn't been effective or healthy much this season. Not trading for a closer was one of the better decisions Hendry made because there simply wasn't a good one out there. Despite the current state of the bullpen, it'd be much worse if it were anchored by Percival or Kolb.
  
  
• Which brings us, finally, to the trade deadline, which is nine days away. Hendry already traded for an outfielder in Jody Gerut, but the question remains: how the hell is he planning on fixing the bullpen? Novoa, though he's shown promise, has also shown he's a bit, well, shaky on the mound, and don't get me started on the rest of the bunch.

7pm. Cardinals. Carlos v. Carpenter. Let's go Cubbies!

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:06 AM
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I'm refusing to buy CocaCola Zero because of that damn "Everybody Chill" commercial. I hear it doesn't taste bad, but I just hate that song so much.

So what does this have to with last night's game? Absolutely nothing. A smooth transition at this point is impossible, so let's go back to a bit of yesterday's post:

I guess I'm more afraid of an arm falling off than him pitching poorly, and given that he only threw 75 pitches over 6 innings in his last appearance, even that worry has regressed.

That's not to say I've become complacent: I'm as worried as ever that the Cubs might revert to their losing streak form.

Why do I write stuff like that? My thoughts yesterday played themselves out before my eyes as Kerry Wood left the game with "shoulder stiffness" and the Cubs lost 9-3. The Cubs did plenty of things wrong, the most damning being flubbing 3 sacrifice bunts, yet they didn't roll over. A 3-run 7th made the game 6-3 before the Reds blew it wide open, which I was happy to see. I'd have been happier to see them come back and win, but there's something to be said for not rolling over and dying.

Will Kerry Wood make his next start? Maybe. Does it really matter? Probably not. The Cub Reporter went over the specifics of Wood's injury about three weeks ago in a thorough manner, and I'm not holding my breath he'll be healthy anytime soon.

Greg Maddux has given up 17 home runs already this year, and is almost guaranteed to give up another today. It'd be hard to have a worse outing than Wood did last night (Maddux would really have to lose an arm), but the recent string of games still has me thinking the Cubs can rebound today. Go get 'em, Cubbies!

- posted by Mike J. @ 8:49 AM
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If you're reading this, it means you've made it to Old Style Cubs' new home. For you RSS subscribers, the new RSS feed is http://michaeljansen.net/oldstylecubs/atom.xml.

- posted by Mike J. @ 4:18 PM
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It's almost obscene to think that someone with a .310 BA, 24 home runs, and 69 RBI falls in the shadow of a teammate, but that's what happens when Derrek Lee looms at first base. Aramis Ramirez declared himself as arrived yesterday, smashing 2 home runs for 5 RBI (plus a double and a walk) and taking the spotlight away from Lee for at least one game as the Cubs won 7-3.

Although Ramirez has regressed defensively this year, recording his 11th error of the year last night, it's clear that he's getting into a groove that would make most of us giddy except for the Triple Crown contender across the field (Lee, by the way, is leading all three categories as of today). It makes me very, very happy that Ramirez signed a 4-year deal before the season began.

Don't forget about Todd Walker, though: the second baseman is riding a 12-game hit streak and has a .359 OBP and .714 SLG in the last week, boosting his AVG/OBP/SLG line to .310/.366/.599 on the year. If it weren't for the shortstop position, the Cubs might have the best infield in the game.

Of course, you can't discount the shortstop position and so Neifi brings down the collective effectiveness a notch or two. I've been wondering why Ronny Cedeno hasn't got more playing time lately, but Neifi has been alright in the past week or two. I also wonder if Dusty just doesn't trust Cedeno's defense yet. With Neifi no longer at the top of the lineup, his shortcomings offensively aren't as noticeable anymore, and given his hot start to the season I expect he's earned the right to play daily in Dusty's mind.

Tonight it's Kerry Wood on the mound. Despite my apprehension about his start, he actually hasn't had a bad outing since he's returned. I guess I'm more afraid of an arm falling off than him pitching poorly, and given that he only threw 75 pitches over 6 innings in his last appearance, even that worry has regressed.

That's not to say I've become complacent: I'm as worried as ever that the Cubs might revert to their losing streak form. Keep piling it on, Cubbies!

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:08 AM
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Lots to talk about today, so let's get to it:

• Until his last inning, Jerome Williams had a very strong outing en route to an 8-4 home run derby victory for the Cubs. He gave up 3 of his 4 ERs with one out to go in the 7th, and I suspect that he may have just been trying to rush through the hitters to get out of the inning. It's just speculation, but I would still call this a solid outing by Williams, which I'm very happy to see.
  
  
• 2 for Lee, 2 for Walker, 1 for Ramirez. Somewhere out there, a back-to-back jacks contestant is very happy.
  
  
• Jim Hendry traded Jason Dubois to the Cleveland Indians for Jody Gerut. While I'm sorry to see someone named Dooby get traded, I think it's a good move on the surface for the Cubs. Chris Troha over at View From The Bleachers puts it like this:
  

  To me the trade represents an interesting change in philosophy for the Cubs. Their offense has been dependent on power hitters for the last few years, and they now appear to be trying to move to a more diversified attack. DuBois was the Cubs best power hitting prospect, and he's now been traded for a line drive, gap-to-gap hitter, who is proficient at working the count. This move coupled with the promotions of Murton and Greenberg, and the demotion of Patterson shows that Jim Hendry may be serious about obtaining more players who are willing to take pitches, walk when they can, and are not strikeout prone. I for one, hope that this is the case.

  That certainly sounds promising, so let's hope this change in philosophy has actually taken place. Another thing to consider: while Gerut's played all three OF positions, he's primarily a right-fielder. I suspect he'll get a shot at winning the starting job in Spring Training next year because, frankly, I doubt Burnitz will be re-signed.
  
  
• When the front office makes a statement by sending guys down to the minor leagues, you have to wonder if it will really make a difference. In the Cubs' case, it's worked wonders. Was Corey Patterson bringing the team down from the inside? Consider a couple of things:
  
  
  • The Cubs have had rallies lately, which is hard to do when you've got a hacker in your lineup. Before he was sent down, Patterson was almost a guaranteed out. That has a real effect on a lineup's ability to produce, not just on the intangibles in the clubhouse.
    
  
  
  • I think something can be said for team chemistry, too: how often do you hear someone ask to bat leadoff or call themselves a number three hitter? From his words, Patterson seems to think he decides what kind of hitter he needs to be, instead of going out there and doing what he's told
  
  
  Patterson, of course, isn't a guy who goes off his rocker after every bad at-bat. He's usually one of the most stoic guys on the field, and I'm not sure the Cubs are going to give up on him yet (how could they trade him now, anyway?) This article out of Des Moines seems to suggest he's making progress, anyway. I sure hope he is, but I don't want him coming back up too soon and messing up the good thing the Cubs have going right now.

Today it's the Mark Prior show at 6:10pm CST, which makes me feel warm and fuzzy. Like a small bear. Let's go Cubbies!

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:53 AM
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Yesterday was a great day in baseball for two reasons:

1. The Cubs won 8-2 behind Carlos Zambrano, who recently enrolled in an acrobatics course.
2. Kyle Farnsworth tackled someone, again.

Zambrano's suspect defense in yesterday's game was described as follows by Cubs.com writer Carrie Muskat:

He reached up and tried to barehand Matt Lawton's single, which he ended up deflecting toward second base. Zambrano then chased down the ball and tried to long-snap it to Lee at first, like a football center would to a quarterback. Lawton was safe, and Zambrano apparently lost his balance and turned a backwards somersault on the infield dirt.

However, words don't really do it justice so hopefully you can find a video clip somewhere. In regards to the barehanded effort to catch the ball, hopefully someone can get it through Zambrano's skull that it's a bad idea to fling your pitching hand in the path of a line drive before he goes on the DL. Then again, Carlos has only been affected by non-baseball injuries lately, so maybe he'll be all right.

Farnsworth's tacking of Jeremy Affeldt is another incident that deserves seeing instead of a mere description, so check out the Tigers' home page for the video clip links. When the Farns went after Paul Wilson in 2003, I thought the behavior was excusable because, well, Farnsworth was actually pitching at the time. Here, it just makes me glad that the Cubs traded him. Charging out of the bullpen to tackle Affeldt (maybe they've hated each other for a while? Why Affeldt?) unprovoked will certainly land Farnsy a lengthy suspension in the middle of a season where he's actually performing quite well. His ERA of 1.85 will be intact for quite some time, as he won't have much of an opportunity to pitch more than the 39 innings he's already thrown.

Despite a 3-0 loss on Saturday, the Cubs have looked quite good lately. I was especially impressed by the way they rebounded after getting shut out to win the series, showing that their offense isn't planning on going anywhere soon. I hope so, anyway, because even though the Reds don't have pitching, they can still mash. If the starters don't have a great game to follow up their performances last week, the lineup will need to step up for them and overpower the Reds, who aren't doing so bad themselves lately.

I'm wishing this was a day game, but I guess I can wait four more hours. Let's go Cubbies!

- posted by Mike J. @ 12:34 PM
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I've thought about giving midseason grades for the Cubs, but with the exception of Derrek Lee I'd probably just be writing "flashes of brilliance, but addled by inconsistency" over and over. So in a nutshell, the team gets a C brought on by average performance and excess absences (see me after class).

Yesterday, however, was the first time in a while that I can remember performing to expectations, handling the Pirates with ease. Prior pitched a smooth 8 innings, striking out 10, while Walker hit a 2-run shot and the rest of the offense combined for 5 runs. I was a little concerned that Mark Redman had the Cubs baffled after the first inning, but after seeing Blanco hit his first double, I was pretty sure the rest of the lineup would be able to figure him out.

Speaking of the Blanco double, Neifi was thrown out at the plate on that play and later on Derrek Lee was out trying to score on a wild pitch. It burns me to see guys tagged out at home, but in both cases I think it was right to try and score. It took perfect throws to get both Neifi and Lee, and the Pirates got perfect throws. What can you do?

A win like this makes you come away feeling good about the Cubs, but only if you ignore the 8-game losing streak they just had and their .500 record. I'd love to see a winning streak that puts them back where they were, but I'd love even more to see them drop a game and then win 4 more right after it. Don't lose today, though: it's Josh Fogg versus Kerry Wood and I'd like to see Wood pitch well.

Let's go Cubs!

- posted by Mike J. @ 8:17 AM
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I'm heading to the game later to see Mark Prior pitch in person for the first time since 2002, but for now I'll offer the news that the Rockies made a couple of moves, sending OF Preston Wilson to the Nationals and getting Athletics' OF Eric Byrnes.

Byrnes was never high on the list of outfielders the Cubs would consider acquiring, but Wilson's name was tossed around quite a bit. Now that he's found a new home, it means the OF'ers "available" for the Cubs to acquire has thinned. I'm glad Wilson isn't going to be a Cub, but who will Hendry trade for now, if anyone? Any ideas?

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:17 AM
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I think it's impossible to hate Albert Pujols. After watching the All-Star Red Carpet Thing on Fox Sports, it's absolutely unbelievable that the guy is so likeable: he's humble, articulate, does it for the kids, and on top of all of that is a great ball player. He even buddies up with Derrek Lee. Put him in any other uniform, and I'm sure I'd root for him to dominate the stats each and every year. If he were a Cub, there's no doubt I'd own his jersey.

As it is, though, he's still a jerk. The nicest jerk in the world, no doubt, but still a jerk.

- posted by Mike J. @ 7:23 PM
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I'm leaving Chicago in less than a month to start a job in Madison, Wisconsin. This past weekend I took a little road trip for apartment-finding purposes and much to my surprise, the Cubs swept the Marlins while I was away. I could chalk this up to coincidence, but the last time I went to Madison, the Cubs won a thriller in the 9th, which puts my personal Cubs record while in Wisconsin record at 4-0. I won't get to see many games at Wrigley anymore, but if they keep up this pace, I think it'll be worth it.

Anyway, the weekend's successes have left me in a good mood, although the memories of the 8-game losing streak still linger. The Home Run Derby tonight will help to get rid of those, I'm sure, because for all of the meaningless...ness of the All-Star game, the Derby is still one of the best moments in baseball all year. This year is a precursor to the Baseball World Cup in '06, giving us a lineup that looks like the following:

Bobby Abreu (Venezuela)
Jason Bay (Canada)
Hee-Seop Choi (Korea)
Andruw Jones (Netherlands)
Carlos Lee (Panama)
David Ortiz (Dominican Republic)
Ivan Rodriguez (Puerto Rico)
Mark Teixeira (United States)

Although the exclusion of names like Vladimir Guerrero and Albert Pujols have me slightly disappointed, it's still going to be a lot of fun to watch. There's also the slightly odd addition of the gold ball to the event. MLB.com gives the following description of it's use:

During the CENTURY 21 Home Run Derby, each batter has 10 "outs" over three possible rounds. The Golden Home Run Ball will be used after each batter's ninth out, no matter how many times it takes to get to the 10th. Since 2000, a total of 37 home runs have been hit in the event after a batter had nine outs.

Unfortunately, hitting a home run with the golden ball doesn't mean you get 2 points instead of one. It's actually a charity thing, where $21,000 will be donated to the Boys and Girls Club of America for each golden home run. That's kind of cool, I guess, but not as exciting as it could be. Personally, I think Rawling's is holding out on us: I bet they can manufacture baseballs with covers that tear off easily, or explode if they reach a certain altitude. Of course, exploding baseballs might lead to trouble, so maybe that's not such a good idea.

So who's going to win? David Ortiz is probably the favorite to win the event, but I'm putting my money on Carlos Lee. I can't justify that choice, really, but I'm throwing it out there anyway. There's a very detailed Home Run Derby challenge at MLB.com, where you pick how each round plays out, but I'm not going to go into that here. Looks like fun, though.

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:25 AM
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I'm not quite in the mood to chronicle the depths of the Cubs suckitude, but I will mention a few things:

• The big news everywhere, of course, is that Corey Patterson and Jason Dubois are being optioned to the minors and the Cubs bought the contracts of Ryan Greenberg and Matt Murton from AA. Both are doing pretty well in West Tenn, and might be in the lineup soon. What about star prospect Felix Pie?

  The Cubs would've considered calling up outfielder Felix Pie, but he has a bone bruise on his right ankle and will be sidelined at least one more week, possibly more.
  

• Glendon Rusch is having some trouble adjusting. In 4 appearances since moving back to the bullpen, he's pitched 3 innings, gave up 6 ER, 2 HR, and 9 hits. Rusch was huge in his spot starts, but I'm wondering if he'll regain effectiveness anytime soon. Then again, I'm wondering if any Cub will ever be effective again, so that may be an unfair statement about Rusch.
  
  
• Thanks to a Brewers loss, the Cubs are still in 3rd place by half a game. Woo. Go team.

Booting Patterson down to the minors is a good step, but I've got the feeling more changes are coming soon. I don't think Dusty's in danger of losing his job just yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if a new hitting coach were around the corner.

I would, however, be surprised if a win were around the corner tonight when the Cubs face Dontrelle Willis. If I had to make a guess, I'd say the success of the Cubs tonight depends on Neifi Perez: if he hits, the Cubs are in good shape. Not to say I'm optimistic about Neifi's performance tonight.

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:53 AM
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Horacio Ramirez, he of the 5.07 ERA, 3-hit the Cubs in the first game of the doubleheader. When Smoltz takes the mound, the Cubs are screwed.

- posted by Mike J. @ 2:28 PM
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Prior just came out of game 1 of the doubleheader after giving up 6 in 4 2/3 innings. It's 6-0 with Horacio Ramirez pitching, and John Smoltz lies in wait for tonight. If the Cubs lose both games and Milwaukee comes back to beat the Marlins this afternoon, the Cubs will slip into 4th place.

Ugh. Let's get some runs now, Cubbies, because it ain't gonna happen later.

- posted by Mike J. @ 1:30 PM
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As if the current losing streak didn't make me want to write off this team's chances, Derrek Lee aggravated his shoulder while trying to carry the Cubs last night in Atlanta. The only information I've been able to find so far is this:

"His shoulder's been bothering him on and off for a little while," Cubs manager Dusty Baker said. "He took a swing tonight and re-aggravated it again."

I'm waiting as patiently as possible for Will Carroll to write his "Under the Knife" column at Baseball Prospectus so I can get the real scoop, but considering Lee is having his MRI today, we probably won't know anything until later tonight or tomorrow.

*Pessimism Warning!*

How long Lee will be out of the lineup is a complete mystery at this point. Considering he's been playing through the inflammation he may just need some rest, but the following will assume the worst. You've been warned.

Just how depressing is this? Besides losing the best player in the league for an indeterminate amount of time, the Cubs are losing a giant chunk of their offense. That may not make sense at first, but what if the Cardinals had to put Albert Pujols on the 15-day DL? He's an outstanding player that would be missed greatly, but there are enough bats in the lineup that slack can be picked up over the short term.

Even with Lee batting, the Cubs have been outscored 364 to 369 this season. Their runs scored total makes them the 10th best (or 6th worst) offense in the NL. What chunk of that total is Lee responsible for? Well, let's see:

66 runs + 67 RBI - 25 home runs (it evens out that way) = 108 runs contributed

108/364 = about 30%

That's a little crude, but a finer analysis will tell you the same basic thing: one man out of 12 on the Cubs has provided an extraordinary amount of offense so far this year. Now he's injured.

(Insert favorite expletive here.)

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:11 AM
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That's the thing about losing streaks: they're twice as disheartening as a winning streak of the same length. The 4-game win streak the Cubs put together against the Sox and the Brewers felt good, but I never shook the sense that they were getting lucky and that it was going to end sooner rather than later. Now that the Cubs have dropped 5 in a row, I'm feeling much worse about the Cubs' chances to compete for the Wild Card.

Which is, of course, a bit silly. Only half of the season is done and there's plenty of time left to turn things around. Whether or not the current Cubs roster can handle that task remains to be seen. While the bullpen is a little shaky still, the offense as is has something very wrong with it. Dusty took a step in the right direction by benching Corey Patterson the last few days and letting Jerry Hairston lead off, followed by Todd Walker, but that move isn't going to be a cure-all. If Ronny Cedeno hits in the majors like he did in AAA, he'll help pick up the slack, but that will require the benching of Neifi Perez, a move that I suspect Dusty is not yet ready to execute. With all those things in mind, the Cub lineup should look like this:

Hairy
Walker
Lee
Burnitz
Ramirez
Hollandsworth
Cedeno
Barrett

You could flip-flop the bottom two however you'd like, but having the lefty Hollandsworth bat after the righty Ramirez makes pitching moves harder late in the game.

Something still looks wrong, though. Maybe it's that Hairston shouldn't be starting at CF full-time: despite Patterson's bat problems, he's still much better defensively than Hairston in the outfield. Or maybe it's Hollandsworth's presence as starter. That's not entirely fair, though, as over the last month Holly has been pretty darn good, with a .356 OBP and .566 SLG in that time, plus 17 RBI. Or, perhaps, it's because that regardless of how Cedeno did in the minors, he hasn't had a real chance to prove himself in the majors and it's unclear how quickly he'll do so.

Juggling the lineup is one way to improve a team's chances, but unless Jim Hendry manages to add something to this lineup by the trade deadline, I'll have my doubts about the Wild Card coming to Chicago.

Rising Teams

It's been a one-horse race for quite some time in the NL Central, but 2nd place is starting to look a little crowded all of a sudden. The Houston Astros are 39-42 after competing with the Rockies for the title of "worst NL team" in the beginning months of the season due to the efforts of Morgan Ensberg, Roger Clemens, and Roy Oswalt. Ensberg has hit 22 home runs so far this year and will likely blow past his career high for a season, 25 home runs, sometime after the All-Star Break. Clemens and Oswalt are lights out as usual, and while I had my doubts that the Astros offense would ever come around, especially after Bagwell went down, apparently they've been getting enough lately. Maybe a little competition with scare the Cubs into playing like they mean it again.

In the AL, there's another team that's turning around like they're the Astros. The Oakland Athletics, who were playing like, well, a bunch of rookies early in the season, are now 40-41, the same record as the Cubs. Dan Haren, one of the pieces in the Mark Mulder trade to St. Louis, has a 3.85 ERA and owns a 7-7 record after early struggles, compared to Mulder's 9-5 record and 4.63 ERA. The A's have a number of guys that will be good for years to come, including SP Rich Harden, rookie OF Nick Swisher, rookie closer Huston Street, and middle reliever All-Star Justin Duchscherer. There's no way they will make the the playoffs in a division that has the Angels and the Rangers, but the future is coming a lot sooner than expected for the A's.

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:33 AM
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I'm hittin' the road for the weekend this morning, so I don't have much time to summarize yesterday's loss. If you're looking for a laundry list of things that went wrong, read Al Yellon's entry at Bleed Cubbie Blue for all the finer points.

Like I said earlier in the week, the first place Nats are going to be a tough team this weekend, but first place teams are nothing to the Cubs! Chicago spanked San Diego on the west coast road trip, and with Prior, Jerome Williams, and Carlos Zambrano due up this weekend, I think 2 of 3 is a very good possibility.

Go Cubbies!

- posted by Mike J. @ 9:02 AM
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